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Sunday, June 24, 2012 6:16:23 PM
The Copaxone ruling is a setback but it is not the colossal setback that some people imagine it to be. Most sell-side analysts expected Teva to win the patent case (e.g. #msg-72925141, #msg-72926198); to my knowledge, the only analyst who predicted a win by NVS/MNTA/MYL was Ritu Baral of Canaccord (#msg-72951709).
Losing a case most investors expected MNTA to lose ought to have less of an effect on the share price than a losing a case most investors expected to win; therefore, when the dust settles, I don’t think the sustained hit to MNTA’s share price will be as severe as some have predicted.
Moreover, as noted in #msg-76904920, the FDA can approve NVS/MNTA’s Copaxone ANDA (as well as MYL’s) irrespective of the District Court ruling, which would certainly boost MNTA’s share price despite the fact that NVS/MNTA do not intend to launch generic Copaxone “at risk.”
Turning to the subject of valuation, when you subtract MNTA’s cash on hand from its fully-diluted market cap, the resulting enterprise value is pretty darn cheap, IMO. For the sake of discussion, let’s say you can buy MNTA for $15; inasmuch as there are ~54M shares on a fully-diluted basis and $400M in cash on hand (at the end of 1Q12), MNTA’s enterprise value at $15/sh is only $410M.
So, the question for investors to ask is: How does the sum of MNTA’s non-financial assets compare to $410M? To answer, add the value of:
• The Lovenox franchise—including potential damage awards and royalties from Amphastar/WPI for infringing MNTA’s patents;
• The Copaxone program, which could be a major profit contributor in a few years even if MNTA loses the patent appeal and has to wait for Teva’s patents to expire;
• The FoB partnership with BAX;
• The M402 and IVIG programs; and
• The ever-present buyout vig.
Do these items sum to more than $410M? I think the answer is that they do by a wide margin, which is why I intend that MNTA will continue to be one of my largest holdings.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”
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