Simple's Green Room

[pennies2007]

AU Hourly Chart

Here's the most likely wave count right now on AU. The big move yesterday, of course, would be Wave 3. Since each impulse series wave (1,3 and 5) has to be made up of a smaller 5 wave count internally, it's important to be able to label those waves inside the context of the larger pattern.

So we had an initial sell off the other day as Big Ben was flapping his jaws in front of the cameras. That was Wave 1. Then a bounce for Wave 2.

Then another drop that would be considered a Minor Wave (1) inside a larger Wave 3 movement. Then a minor Wave (2) bounce.

Huge drop yesterday for a minor Wave (3) and last night's boring Asian session recovery for a sideways minor Wave (4). Note the differences in the characteristics between minor (2) and minor (4). That's critical. One is always sharp and the other a long drawn out sideways type of movement.

So now we wait to see how minor wave (5) plays out. Projections show a possible target of 0.9983 which lines up nicely with the 38.2 fib retrace of the entire move up on AU. For now, that hourly EMA233 (red line) is keeping the price action in check.

Keep in mind that when minor Wave (5) plays out, that will complete the overall major Wave 3 movement down. We still have to sit through a major Wave 4 recovery bounce and then a final Major Wave 5 to the downside. And that total movement will comprise a full impulse series.