Short Term Trading Member Forum

[Blackbelt1]

Golfin, I admire your persistence and strength of belief. The market simply does not appear prone to such volatility at this time. While an 80-week cycle low lies directly ahead (November to February timeframe), you may be just ahead of the curve.

If your analysis turns out to be correct, I will send you the Blackbelt Award for Trading Brilliance and Bravery.

I am currently holding a small, long-term short position which shall remain anonymous, so I am rooting for you. However, personally, I expect to see few downward fireworks for a few weeks.

This market has been founded on a rock of a broad base of advancing stocks. It is not the same market we saw in 2000 that was advancing on the backs of fewer and fewer high-beta screamers. Is it vulnerable to a substantial pullback? Always, but we don't invest in the odd possibility, and right now, the dramatic wave down just isn't there.

One measure of this market is how it responds to bad news. So far, it falls reluctantly and climbs methodically. It will take something dramatic to change that dynamic in my opinion.

We would both do well to take a long nap, wake up in late September, and then reconsider our positions. :)

BB