I am in the same boat as many here in that I have a substantial position in AMY at a much higher price than here. I believe the current share price is a result of an over reaction to the CAPEX and extraction costs from the PFS. Keep the following in mind.
1.AMY has the largest manganese deposit in the US and has the technology to extract its' manganese in a competitive and environmentally friendly way. Even with the updated CAPEX and extraction cost, AMY is still cheaper than China. Keep in mind that China imposes a hefty export tax on its manganese exported to the US. In addition, the US imposes an import tax on the manganese as well. Even if things change and China can extract manganese less than the US, that won't be the case once you tack on export and import taxes to the US.
2. China is becoming more and more industrialized every day. A few years ago, almost no one in China owned a car. Today, 10% of the population owns a car. This trend will only accelerate in the coming years which means China will consume more and more of its' manganese production and export less and less. In addition, China is reducing its number of suppliers from 200 to around 15. What do you get when the largest producer of manganese has increased demand and a reduced supply of manganese? You get much higher manganese prices.
3.Even with its' current CAPEX and extraction cost, AMY IS ECONOMICALLY VIABLE!!!! As manganese prices go up in the coning years, AMY will be very profitable!!! The BFS will be out later this year and in my opinion, will show a reduced CAPEX and extraction cost. This will be the time when JV'S will be knocking on our door.
4. There is a major push in the US to end our independence on essential minerals including manganese. AMY has been invited to attend a Strategic Mineral Conference on June 6th. This shows that the US will make sure AMY succeeds in being the domestic source of manganese in the near future.
5. I am confident that with future manganese price appreciation, coupled with the US desire to have a domestic source for manganese, that AMY will easily earn .5/ a share after its' first year of production in early to mid 2015. At a conservative PE ratio of 10, AMY will be a $5 stock in 2015. That will make AMY a nearly 50 bagger from these levels. Even if Amy only earns .20/share, you are still looking at a $2 stock, or a nearly 20 bagger in 2015.
6. If you think I am off on all counts and that China will be WILLING and ABLE to supply manganese to the US cheaper than AMY could,which I do not believe will be the case, the US would still make AMY "whole" to end its dependence on this essential mineral. Do you really think the US would allow AMY to fail? What if a Chinese company came in and bought AMY? AMY is "TOO BIG TO FAIL".
7. I truly believe we have a big winner here and that the patient investor will be rewarded in holding this stock for several years. You see, in the rare case that we fail, we still win due to US backing. In that case, maybe we only have a 5-10 bagger from this level!!! I along with current insiders will continue to buy at this insanely low valuation!!!
