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Re: Mazinaw post# 469

Friday, 09/02/2005 12:15:22 AM

Friday, September 02, 2005 12:15:22 AM

Post# of 1213
You are more likely, with your inside knowledge or faith I guess we could say, to make money if you double down, rather than trying to double up.

Trying to push any mining stock to double in this market today is pretty tough. Many are starting out overvalued to start, as in Cardero et al. Hard to make money unless the "orebody" starts to balloon like crazy. Remember that Argentina gold was bought out at 7.50. And it was a large orebody that lined up with an even larger one. Had enormous support.

The chances of SUR making it are 60-40. Finding an economic copper/AU porphyry that anyone will develop has a snowball's chance in hell. Developing it in the Phillipines is even worse. Finding one that you can get bought out on is a hard go. (Pebble et al).

BTW I really do believe that there are values concentrated in a few core veins. All the evidence points to it. Few copper-gold porphyries carry that high grade over wide widths for any number of tons. We are a long way from proving pervasive grade for millions of tons. A long way.

They might have a shot at a higher grade smaller gold situation. Not 500 feet, Bre-X-wide. Few geos will believe that. I have looked at 1000's of deposits going back 100 years. That geology is so rare that it makes pink elephants with wings look household cats in comparison. To put it succinctly, the earth is not that munificent.

They do point out that the copper grade will come up and the gold go down as they go deeper. This is common. The gold will last to 1000 feet, maybe deeper. Let's do an exercise. If the deposit were rich for 2500 metres and 3 grams per ton, and 500 feet wide, it would be 34 million ounces. To say you had that by 43-101 you would have to drill 820 holes. Well, with those widths, you could probably get away with 300 or less. But that is a number.

The thin trading of the company tells me that it is a wait and see situation for the market. Wait could be three years of drill, drill drill. They have to prove their case with actuality. So far the innuendo has not caught fire.

I will admit that not much is catching fire these days in the market. And they do not need me in their "bashing" to sound bells of doom. Many stocks with great promise seem to be able to flounder all on their own.

EC<:-}

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