Viking,
Very good post. essentially right on, imo. We can see how the growth is happening in each business to get to the projected numbers.
And I agree about the retail, as per my post on that new 100% SIAF owned business. The distributing network adds 15% to gross profit, and the retail another 50% on top of that. It's a 2013+ story for real numbers, but it is starting NOW, just like the fish business really started in 2010/11 and revenues in 2012 are growing hugely.
It's interesting that Dutch prefers a conservative approach to revenues and guidance, yet keeps referring to PEG ratio, which is not only wildy anti-conservative, but irrelevant for a Chinese BB company.
I think the conservative rev/earnings outlook in relation to targets made sense for 2011. But I think the company toned down those targets, and now appear realistic, the new fish farms and fish sale growth rates being wild cards, as well as weather for HU. They are essentially forecasting tripling revenues, but to get there, they probably will need to grow Q3 and Q4 by "only" about 125%.
As we track the numbers, quarter by quarter, we'll also track the uplisting, dual listing. spin out progress. If and when those milestones are hit -- which coincide with cash flow positive operations toward "cash rich," by all rational reasoning, the p/e will expand dramatically, but not to PEG levels, which is largely outmoded and was applicable in go go years mostly to reasonably young, but well established credit worthy American high tech companies on major exchanges, with high institutional interest and lots of cash on the balance sheet.
I know I would be delighted to see a 2013 forward p/e of 4 (not 50) on $1.50 2014 earnings. If we ever see a p/e of 10+, might leave a lot of money on the table, but I could not afford not to sell.
AI
