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Wednesday, May 09, 2012 9:41:12 PM
I believe PS is the most reliable given those have the most "hardened" numbers to work with. I am not a fan of PE given the large continuing losses-- albeit veiled by non-specifically noting (habitually persistent) "one time charges" -- but the board favored that metric based off of the Gross Margin (which has been the primary hard number "profit" focus that has not been effectively dis-proven up to this point). I believe an industry average provides a more realistic "base" from which to discuss, so I am offering that as the alternative to the "PE matrix" and 90% Gross Margin.
If you note my posts historically-- now even allowing for the 2x output increase to be used (as I am still not convinced premelt throughput = processor output), the resultant ratio-derived speculative targets haven't moved in a like fashion. That is the result of 1.) dilution, and 2.) the company stated production days. All in all, even if you assume 3x processors running at 2x capacity, the speculative target is ~ $2.25 - $2.70...
... hopefully it helps balance posts that assume shares under $5 are "gifts" much less those that see double-digit "valuations" on the short to mid-term horizons.
Updated Metrics:
Output bpd $/bbl $/day Op Days $/year OS $/Share Price Proj PS
20tpd 109 109.8 11968.2 273.75 3276294.75 73,177,216 0.044772061 1.04 23.22877227
40tpd 218 109.8 23936.4 273.75 6552589.5 73,177,216 0.089544121 1.04 11.61438614
60tpd 327 109.8 35904.6 273.75 9828884.25 73,177,216 0.134316182 1.35 10.05091108
80tpd 436 109.8 47872.8 273.75 13105179 73,177,216 0.179088242 1.8 10.05091108
120tpd 654 109.8 71809.2 273.75 19657768.5 73,177,216 0.268632364 2.7 10.05091108
23% Net Net OS $/Share Price Proj PE
20tpd 753547.7925 73,177,216 0.010297574 1.04 100.994662
40tpd 1507095.585 73,177,216 0.020595148 1.04 50.49733102
60tpd 2260643.378 73,177,216 0.030892722 1.13 36.57819491
80tpd 3014191.17 73,177,216 0.041190296 1.51 36.65912012
120tpd 4521286.755 73,177,216 0.061785444 2.26 36.57819491
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