In order to beat 0.01 p value with 40 events they would need 'only' HR=0.45. I.e. better than 2x, but not much.
Dont forget that the co changed the primary endpoint to PFS in TWO co-primary populations. Since they changed the primary end point, I expect the co to PR using the new primary endpoint. So this 'doubling the PFS' must be in these two subpopulations. Also, since they changed the primary endpoint, I agree that we might see statistical significance.
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