40% of their revenue comes from 18% of their clients.. and then the other 82% of their clients are more or less stagnent/growing.
"Agreed with this. Tellier claimed that 82% of clients are in a steady state or increasing. The 18% that takes up 40% of revenue are the guys at risk. Even if this were to go to zero, with zero growth in online and zero growth in the other 82%, 60% of $1,329 in revenue is about $800M. Let's say EBITDA margin declines to 40%, that would be $320M a year, the absolute, positive floor. "
haha, that sounds a lot like our financial model.
realistically if 40% comes from 18% and the other 82% pays 60%. let's use some fractions! the 82% are paying roughly 3x as much as the others per customer.. so if you cut them down by 1/3... that 40% drops to 12%
40% of their revenues of $289M right now discounted by 28% drops revenues another 80.92 or ebitda 40 per quarter.
so this is my worst case scenerio if you use his metrics and assume that the 18% of clients who represent 40% of revenue drop to normal client levels...
Revenue $836M
EBITDA $424M
so with a worst case, throw on a normal multiple of 6x EBITDA. EV should be at 2544M.
