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Re: SSKILLZ1 post# 274

Thursday, 05/03/2012 6:54:17 PM

Thursday, May 03, 2012 6:54:17 PM

Post# of 373
I think there may be a chance at a sequential weakish Q1 with the 'significant' portion of work lost from Canadian retailer customer (in 2010 and 2011 they accounted for over 10% revs).

No numbers given in the MD&A how much of the work would be lost but sounds like most of it (think customer was $1.2+ mill revs in 2011 and company used the word 'significant' describing the loss).
Also makes me wonder a little bit about competition in the various segments they operate in (the lost biz was from MDC segment).

The positive is that they've been fairly conservative with guidance in the past it seems and are still guiding for the higher YOY revs after the significant downsizing of work for that customer.

On the whole I would guess that loss is higher margin biz that would probably drop off significantly sequentially for Q1 (just guessing) while the other SI biz that is probably still a bit lower margin starts to fill in for it (ISM probably helping fill gap too).

Going forward I would expect the lower margin biz to get back up to where the lost biz margins are in back half 2012 given the company's commentary so seems like a temporary POTENTIAL risk for Q1. May not even materialize. If it does (some selling on a possible disappointing Q1), seems like would be a buying opportunity unless the economy suddenly takes a drastic turn for the worse.

The company demonstrated in the big downturn how vulnerable they may be to macroeconomics. That can obviously be said of a vast majority of micros.

BTW I maybe shouldn't extrapolate out the SI revs for all of 2012 (from my last post) since those customers are supposed to be fully integrated/migrated by end July 2012.

I'll have to try to get a better handle on their basic business approach like how long contracts are signed for, what potential range would be from 'big' to 'small' customer contracts. I have no clue right now.

I had a bid in for a few of the INXSF.PK shares today (broker only allows the pink equivalents) but got none.

Good luck.

I don't mind stealing bread from the mouths of decadence... But I can't feed on the powerless when my cup's already overfilled.
-Temple of the Dog