Thanks, but I think you're giving me too much credit, I'm just a regular investor who puts a lot of hours in my work... Knowledge is power my friend, read, read, read... thats the best advice I can give you...
Now to your question...
First of all the individual components of POET need to be validated by a third party and so far this has been done with success by BAE Systems. In about 6 months the results should come out and then the technology will be ready for other companies. But since BAE has done most of the hard work I think they will get the first right or best deal. They can get an exclusive license for a year or more and then other companies will have to wait to obtain a license. BAE is the second largest military contractor in the world and OPL has received 10 years of funding from the Department of Defense (DoD), so the military will have a strong saying of what the direction will be. After all they didn't fund it for ten years to give it away for peanuts to their competitors. This makes sense to me.
The target of 6 months is for the BAE results, which will produce one or several licenses, and those can easily go into the tens of millions per contract, if not more... But you have to take into account that the POET Tech is something brand new and each company who wants to make a new product of it will have to test and validate it, and make new firmware for it. And that can take many months, if not several years to complete. At least this is my own assumption. BAE did the testing for an Infrared device and for the assembly of a semiconductor, but there are much more applications for the POET Tech, like telecommunications, aeronautics, satellites, servers etc and I'm not sure if BAE ran the tests for all of these applications, if they did then the licenses of other companies will come much faster. But I'm inclined to think they did not and therefore our expectation of the realization of the full potential will be spread over several years.
That is, if OPL decides to license their POET Tech.
A company can come along and do an offer that OPL can't refuse and simply sell their Intellectual Property (IP). In this case, if OPL receives an offer of $1 billion, our shares will be adjusted to this price. For example if the fully diluted share structure of OPL is 125 mil than we would get approx $8/share... if the offer is $1.5 billion we would get $12/share...
That would be an awesome gain from today's prices, although other scenarios are possible too. Like we get half of our shares paid in cash and the other half in shares of the company that buys the IP, or a combination of that + dividends in that other company... But the route that will give us even more money is the license-route. Two downsides to this route; first it will take several years, maybe 2 to 7 years to reach full potential. And second, in the meantime a much better technology can come about and the market turns their back on POET and goes with the better one...
As far as we know is OPL the first to accomplish what they did, but monster companies like IBM or whatever are spending billions of dollars each year in Research & Development (R&D), so its not unthinkable that a competitor will come with a superior product one day. In fact they will, but the question is; when? Or how much better will this be? At first the danger will come in the form of another competitor, which is good and healthy IMO, that keeps OPL sharp and always on the lookout for innovations. I have no problem with competitors as long as they compete, when they start to dominate or outperform POET in every department, then we have a problem... But for now OPL has the edge, and I love it when a small company like OPL can produce a superior technology against monster companies who spend billion of dollars on it. Suckas, lol!
