Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[NewJerichoMan]

I predict!


Freddie, and possibly Fannie, post a profit this quarter. Results will be reported between now and May 15th.

I was holding Freddie when it posted a profit (before divvies) in the 2nd quarter 2009. Common share price tripled in less than a week.

In no particular order:

HPI was positive in February.
Derivatives should post a decent gain.
AOCI should post a gain.
Serious delinquency rate down 7 basis points for the quarter.
FHA raised rates by 75 basis points to shrink market share. Please allow Fannie and Freddie to step into that void because private market won't.
G Fee increase (10 BP to treasury) had a nice little benefit of "forcing" Fannie and Freddie to implement a uniform G Fee structure to big banks (23 bp) and small banks (27 bp), i.e., they had to raise their portion of the G fee.

Lots of things lining up nicely. It'll be interesting to see how the market reacts.