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Politics-Nicaraguans Seem Eager to Kiss Old Guard Goodbye

Voters in the Central American country are turning their attention to younger leaders, and away from two controversial presidents.

(Angus Reid Global Scan) Mario Canseco – In this month’s CID-Gallup poll, 78 per cent of Nicaraguan respondents said their country is on the wrong track. With just over a year to go before the next presidential election, the actual direction of the Central American nation remains unclear.

In 2001, Enrique Bolaños—candidate for the ruling Constitutionalist Liberal Party (PLC)—was elected with 56.3 per cent of the vote over Daniel Ortega of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN).

Nicaragua’s political scene has been unstable since Bolaños lost the support of the PLC in January 2002, when his government decided to take legal action against former president Arnoldo Alemán. Last year, Alemán—who governed the country from 1997 to 2002—was sentenced to 20 years in prison for fraud, money laundering and embezzlement.

While the current head of state enjoyed a brief approval surge following Alemán’s incarceration, few Nicaraguans are now openly supporting his government. Only 29 per cent of respondents approved of Bolaños’ performance in this month’s CID-Gallup survey.

The president’s problems intensified last November, when PLC and FSLN lawmakers at the National Assembly introduced a series of constitutional reforms that restrict presidential powers, by allowing the legislative branch to ratify, summon and dismiss government ministers.

In January, the Central American Court of Justice (CCJ) unanimously ruled that the Nicaraguan legislative branch must not go ahead with the proposed reforms. Bolaños has so far refused to sanction the amendments.

Bolaños must now deal with his own legal problems. On Aug. 9, a National Assembly special commission recommended removing Bolaños’ immunity for alleged electoral offences. Lawmaker Orlando Tardencilla said the commission "corroborated the existence of bank accounts under the name of Enrique Bolaños that were not reported to the electoral commission." The current president has denied any wrongdoing, claiming that the charges are a ploy by lawmakers who hope to release Alemán. The issue will be thoroughly reviewed when the National Assembly reconvenes on Sept. 5.

The Alemán-Ortega alliance has dominated because of its strength in the National Assembly. Still, the two men are not particularly revered in Nicaragua. When respondents were asked by M&R in November 2004 about a prospective Alemán comeback, only 10.9 per cent expressed support. Earlier this month, 81.6 per cent of respondents to another M&R poll said they would not vote for Ortega next year.

In March, the FSLN officially designated Ortega as its presidential nominee. Ortega governed from 1985 to 1990, but was a losing candidate in the 1990, 1996 and 2001 ballots. The decision seemed to put an end to the aspirations of Herty Lewites. The former Managua mayor had topped several voting intention polls, but was expelled from the FSLN in February.

In June, Lewites teamed up with former Constitutionalist Liberal Party (PLC) member and presidency secretary Eduardo Montealegre to criticize the current state of affairs. The two leaders reserved harsh words for the former presidents. Lewites called Alemán and Ortega "mafia figures," while Montealegre expressed his intention to rid the country of "a two-headed dictatorship."

The ratification of the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) with the United States has also been a casualty of recent political wrangling. Bolaños has urged lawmakers to pass the deal "to attract investment, create more jobs and combat poverty." The FSLN’s Ortega said the agreement would "only create temporary, low-paying jobs." More than half of all respondents to a recent M&R survey said the deal is beneficial for the country and should be ratified.

In the CID-Gallup poll, Lewites was the first choice in voting intention for the November 2006 ballot with 25 per cent, followed by Montealegre with 21 per cent, Ortega with 12 per cent, and Alemán with four per cent.

Lewites has already garnered the support of FSLN splinter group Sandinista Renewal Movement (MRS) and Christian Alternative (AC) for his presidential bid. For his part, Montealegre has assembled the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN). Next year’s election seems likely to feature four key groups, two from the right and two from the left, where the younger generation—at least for now—holds the upper hand.