Apple Inc (AAPL)

[nealg]

Some people invest/trade based on technical analysis. With TA, you need to be watching the market closely all the time and watch for turning points on when to get in and get out of a stock. Apple has had quite a run recently and maybe some TA is saying it is time for the stock to take a break/rest, whatever you want to call it, and give some of the recent gains back. If you can make money on the stock market that way, great for you.

Some people, me included, invest on value and fundamentals and we not only look at where the stock is today but look where we think it will be in a year or two. Since I have invested in Apple for the long term, I watch the short term fluctuations to see if it portends a longer term trend for Apple but that is all I am really looking at it for. For me, the long term value in Apple stock is still there. Not because the analysts talk about price targets of $1000 but because I still see room for increased sales and profitability for Apple as a company. We also now have a pretty decent dividend that is coming at the end of this year which pays much more than you can get at a bank these days. My take is that there is still room for gain in cpus, iPad and iPhone, not only in this country but worldwide. I am not the only one to feel this way

http://www.postsateventide.com/2012/04/braeburn-group-aapl-march-quarter.html#more

this group is much more aggressive than I am on most fronts but even if their numbers are off by a bit, Apple still has some pretty nice growth over this past quarter and probably the next year or two as evidenced by this scenario from Horace Dedieu

http://www.asymco.com/2011/12/15/why-apple-is-cheap/

With just the present lineup of products, Apple has some nice growth built in over the next 1-2 years minimum in my opinion. We will know more after some other products are introduced over the next year. If Apple can defy logic and come out with another category of product that is a game changer and increases their revenues and profitability even more, we then have another avenue for growth that possibly could go out another 3-5 years.

For this reason, I don't watch the daily fluctuations with much angst as some of the traders do, whether long or short Apple. As long as I perceive their to be value in Apple stock, I will hold on, especially now since they pay a nice dividend. If you think that Apple could be earning 50 bucks a share next year as I do, then a price of $600 means that Apple is probably undervalued here so I will not be selling but everybody needs to do their own analysis based on their own situation and investment style. If you are short Apple, however, don't expect me to wish you much success except maybe in the very short term .

Just one persons opinion. Good luck out there.

Neal