Biotech Values

[biomaven0]

VVUS

Do you feel there is any probability of an FDA approval before the June options expire or a buyout or partnership announcement?

I doubt the FDA will announce a decision prior to the full 3 month extension.

A buyout/partnership is always possible at any time, but again I think it much more likely that any prospective partner would want to see the final label and REMs program. So my take is that any activity on the Qnexa front prior to the new PDUFA date is unlikely, but not of course impossible. In the unlikely (in my opinion) event that the FDA approves the Arena drug, then of course VVUS would move strongly in sympathy.

I'm not at all clear how much the stock would move if they get a first-pass approval on their ED drug. Could be worth a 10% move I would hazard. Maybe rkrw would be willing to give his opinion - he has by far the best instincts for what various outcomes will do to a stock price of anyone I know.

Peter