Foreign Correspondence

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After Gaddafi, Libya instability deepens
2012-03-04 22:39

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Benghazi - A large map of Libya hangs on the wall in the home of Idris al-Rahel, with a line down the middle dividing the country in half.

Al-Rahel, a former army officer, leads a movement to declare virtual autonomy in eastern Libya, where most of the country's oil fields are located. The region's top tribal leaders meet on Tuesday in the east's main city Benghazi to consider unilaterally announcing an eastern state, linked to the west only by a tenuous "federal union".

Opponents fear a declaration of autonomy could be the first step toward outright dividing the country. But some easterners say they are determined to end the domination and discrimination by the west that prevailed under strongman Muammar Gaddafi.

Al-Rahel points to the capital Tripoli on the map, in the west. "All troubles came from here," he said, "but we will not permit this to happen again".

The move shows how six months after Gaddafi's fall, the central government in Libya has proved incapable of governing at all. Other countries that shed their leaders in the Arab Spring revolts - Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen - are going through rocky transitions, but none has seen a collapse of central authority like Libya.

The collapse has only worsened as cities, towns, regions, militias and tribes all act on their own, setting up their independent power centres.

After liberation from the rule of Gaddafi, Libyans dreamed their country of 6 million could become another Dubai - a state with a small population, flush with petro-dollars, that is a magnet for investment. Now they worry that it is turning more into another Somalia, a nation that has had no effective government for more than 20 years.

Libya may not face literal fragmentation, but it could be doomed to years of instability as it recovers from four decades of rule under Gaddafi, who pitted neighbour against neighbour, town against town and tribe against tribe. The resentment and bitterness he incubated is now bursting forth in general lawlessness.

"What Gaddafi left in Libya for 40 years is a very, very heavy heritage," said Mustafa Abdul-Jalil, head of the National Transitional Council, which in theory rules Libya but doesn't even hold sway in the capital Tripoli. "It's ... hard to get over it in one or two years or even five years."

Signs of the government's weakness are everywhere.

Militia control

Tripoli remains under the control of various revolutionaries-turned-militiamen, who have resisted calls to integrate into a national army.

Kufra, deep in the deserts of the south, is a battleground for two rival tribes, one Arab and one African, who killed dozens in two weeks of fighting last month.

And Misrata, the country's third-largest city and just two hours' drive east of the capital, effectively rules itself, with its militias ignoring government pleas and exacting brutal revenge on anyone they believe to have supported Gaddafi.

At a Misrata garage that has been turned by militiamen into a makeshift prison, one detainee, Abdel-Qader Abdel-Nabi, shows what remains of his left hand: The fingers have been cut off in a ragged line about halfway down. Abdel-Nabi said militiamen lashed his hand with a horse whip until the fingers were severed.

"Then they threw me bleeding down the stairs," he said. His interrogators were trying to get him to confess to working with Gaddafi's forces during last year's civil war and collaborating in the killing of rebel fighters.

Around 800 other detainees are held in the same facility, which militiamen allowed The Associated Press to visit. The detainees are accused of involvement in killings, torture, rape and other crimes under Gaddafi.

There are no courts at the moment capable of addressing the suspicions, so the detainees are entirely at the mercy of militiamen.

Medics in a clinic set up in the garage said they have treated dozens tortured in interrogations. One medic said he had seen nine prisoners whose genitalia had been cut off, and others given electric shocks. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he feared retaliation by the militiamen.

Misrata was one of the few major cities in the west to rise up against Gaddafi last year, and paid for it with a months-long, devastating siege by regime forces.

Found Gaddafi

After repelling the assault, its militias joined the final march on Tripoli that captured the capital and brought down Gaddafi in August. It was Misrata militiamen who found Gaddafi in his final stronghold, the city of Sirte, and killed him in October.

Now the city seems determined to decide its own fate, creating a de facto self-rule. Last month, it held its own elections for a new city council, after forcing out a self-appointed council formed in the uprising which came to be seen as corrupt and ineffective.

In the isolated southeastern town of Kufra, 990km from Benghazi, fighters from the powerful Zwia Arab tribe have besieged the African Tabu tribe in a battle for the past two weeks.

The Tabu, an ethnic minority indigenous to the area, were heavily suppressed under Gaddafi. After Gaddafi's fall, the National Transitional Council assigned the Tabu to police the nearby borders with Chad and Sudan to stop smuggling - a trade dominated by the Zwia.

The Tabu say fighting erupted on February 11, after a Zwia smuggler killed six Tabu border guards. The Zwia in turn say the Tabu attacked them in an attempt to declare their own state in the area, which the Tabu deny.

Zwia, backed by tanks and armoured vehicles, took control of the streets and entrances to the town of 700 000, battling with Tabu gunmen. They surrounded the main Tabu district, where an Associated Press reporter saw widespread damage to homes from rockets.

The district's tiny, three-room hospital was packed with the injured, with only one doctor and 15 nurses. Empty water bottles were being used as blood bags. The doctor, Tarek Abu Bakr, said he has recorded 54 people killed. One Tabu leader, Eissa Abdel-Majed, put the toll at more than 100.

After two weeks of fighting, independent militias in the region finally mediated a tenuous truce. Authorities in Tripoli could do nothing, despite bluster about sending troops to separate the sides.

The violence highlights the weakness of the National Transitional Council, made up of representatives from around the country. The Council is overseeing the transition to democracy after Gaddafi's fall, including the organising of elections set for June. But besides having little ability to enforce decisions, it has been mired in its own divisions.

Referee

NTC chief Abdul-Jalil, a former reform-minded justice minister under Gaddafi, was largely welcomed as a clean and well-intentioned figure. But many feel he is not providing strong enough leadership.

Mohammed Ali, a politician who works closely with Abdul-Jalil, described his style as that of a boxing referee. "He stands on the side watching to see who wins, then raises his hand to declare him victorious," said Ali.

A frustrated Abdul-Jalil admitted mistakes. "But democracy is the reason," he told AP. "In every single decision, I have to get the vote" of 72 Council members.

The Council's attempts to put together a law governing the election are weeks behind schedule. It has put forward three drafts, each met by a storm of criticism from various factions that forced a rewrite.

The election is to choose a 200-member assembly tasked with writing a new constitution and forming a government.

The drafts allocate about 60 seats for the east, compared to 102 for the west, because the drafters say the breakdown reflects the larger population in the west. But for angry easterners, it smacks of the years of discrimination under Gaddafi, who focused development in the west while largely neglecting the east and its main city, Benghazi.

The east was long a centre of opposition to Gaddafi, the source of failed coups and assassination attempts against him - and Gaddafi punished it by depriving its cities of funds for services, health care and schools. However, the east, with its oil fields, is also the source of the vast majority of Libya's revenue.

"The westerners have been milking us like a cow," said al-Rahel."They built towers, airports and hotels while we were deprived of everything."

Benghazi was the first city to shed Gaddafi's rule last year, and the entire east quickly followed. But after his death, the National Transitional Council moved from Benghazi to the capital, and formed an interim Cabinet dominated by figures from the west.

Revive federation

The fight is also fueling a movement to revive a federal system that existed in Libya under the monarchy before it was toppled in the 1967 coup led by Gaddafi.

Under that system, Libya was divided into three states, Tripolitania in the west, Fezzan in the southwest and Cyrenaica - or Barqa, as it was called in Arabic - which encompassed the eastern half of the country.

Al-Rahel's National Federal Union movement calls for a return to that system, giving each region its own capital, parliament, police and courts. Al-Rahel cites the American model of states and a federal government.

On Tuesday, at a gathering of about 3 000 easterners in Benghazi, planners aim to announce the creation of Barqa state and call for other regions to follow in forming a federal system, said Abu Bakr Baaira, a co-founder of the group. He dismissed worries the move will break Libya apart and said Barqa would seek UN backing if Tripoli refuses.

"Are the US, Switzerland and Germany divided?" he said. "We hope they don't force us to a new war and new bloodshed. This is the last thing we look for."

Easterners have already formed their army, the Barqa Supreme Military Council, made up of revolutionary fighters who rose up to battle Gaddafi last year. Their commander, Colonel Hamid al-Hassi, said his forces are now willing to fight for autonomy if Tripoli doesn't grant it.

"Even if we had to take over the oil fields by deploying our forces there or risk another war, we will not hesitate for the sake of Barqa," he told AP.

A spokesperson for the Tripoli government, Ashour Shamis, said the NTC rejects the plan, and instead backs a decentralisation that would give considerable authority to local city or district governments but preserve a strong central government.

Even some easterners are worried. Fathi al-Fadhali, a prominent writer originally from Benghazi, says Libya isn't ready for such a system. First, the country has to overcome the poisons of Gaddafi's rule and establish a civil society where rights are respected.

"We are all polluted by Gaddafi's evil, violence, envy, terrorism, and conspiracies," he said, "myself included".

- AP

http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/After-Gaddafi-Libya-instability-deepens-20120304

========

Federalism is unlikely in Libya, however, decentralization is probable

April 03, 2012 01:43 AM
By Wolfram Lacher
The Daily Star

“Eastern Libya declares autonomy.” In spite of international headlines such as this one, talk of the country’s impending disintegration is misleading. Although the participants at the March 6 Barqa Conference (Barqa is the Arabic name for Cyrenaica, or the region of northeastern Libya) claimed the right to speak for their region, the initiative for self-administration and the move toward federalism triggered furious reactions in Cyrenaica. Given this lack of support in the region itself, the push is unlikely to succeed.

Foreign media coverage of reactions to the initiative focused on anti-federalism demonstrations in Tripoli and the angry response of the chairman of the National Transitional Council, Mustafa Abdul Jalil. But this emphasis on the tension between the central government and proponents of northeastern autonomy is misguided. More important were the reactions against the decisions in the northeast itself. The local councils of the area’s major cities – Benghazi, Darna, Bayda and Tobruk, which also saw large demonstrations against federalism – all immediately made clear their opposition to the Barqa Conference’s declaration and refused to recognize its proposed regional council.

In addition, the Muslim Brotherhood – which has an important base in northeastern Libyan cities – called the declaration the work of narrow-based and personal interests. Furthermore, the initiative has not received significant backing from the disparate armed entities that are controlling the northeast. For instance, the region’s most powerful militia grouping, the Union of Revolutionary Brigades (Tajammu Saraya al-Thuwwar), opposed the conference, and the Barqa Military Council (an unofficial grouping of several army units situated in the region) distanced itself from the conference, declaring that it would not get involved in politics.

Proponents of federalism undoubtedly have an influence in Cyrenaica – perhaps more so than in other regions. Leading figures at the Barqa conference included tribal notables as well as intellectuals. The most prominent of these was Ahmad Zubair al-Sanusi. He is a member of the royal family that ruled Libya from 1951 to 1969, and was appointed to head the regional council. But without the local support of the region it claims to govern, the regional council has little chance of actually governing Cyrenaica.

That the Barqa conference even attempted to exploit the constitutional vacuum to single-handedly set up a ruling body is symptomatic of both the fragility of the current transition and the National Transitional Council’s own weakness. Itself a self-appointed body, the National Transitional Council has faced a wave of criticism regarding its sluggish tackling of urgent problems in Libya.

But the backlash seems directed more against the very concept of autonomy, which is perceived by many Libyans as a harbinger of national disintegration – despite the insistence of leading pro-federalism figures that they do not seek full independence and have no plans to control the region’s oil revenues or set up a regional army.

Conspiracy theories have begun circulating regarding the alleged involvement of foreign powers (as suggested by the National Transitional Council chairman, Abdul Jalil). Additionally, opponents of federalism have seized on the involvement in the federalism call of several organizers in the former regime. For example, Wanis Sharif, an Interior Ministry official, accused Al-Tayyeb al-Safi (a once-prominent figure in Moammar Gadhafi’s Revolutionary Committees) of paying Egyptians to demonstrate in Benghazi in favor of federalism. Safi’s brother, Abu Bakr, is purported to have been a leading sponsor of the Barqa Conference. In this climate of suspicion, armed clashes broke out in Benghazi on March 16 between supporters of the movement and its opponents.

Yet beyond the immediate reactions, there are deeper reasons why these aspirations are unlikely to gain much support. Augurs of disintegration often point out that Libya only emerged as a single entity under Italian colonial rule, and that even after its independence in 1951, Libya was divided into three distinct regions – Tripolitania, Cyrenaica and Fezzan. Each of these regions was controlled by local notables and tribal leaders, and had their own representative assemblies and administrations.

Although the Barqa Conference explicitly sought to resurrect this system, the regional entities introduced in 1951 were (even then) novel concepts for local tribes, who until that point had been largely outside the reach of the state’s administration. Moreover, after the onset of oil production greatly enhanced the central government’s power, federalism was soon abolished in 1963.

This past year’s civil war saw the emergence of local councils and militias representing the specific interests of towns, cities and tribes. As a result, political and military organization during and after the conflict has generally been at this level – rather than visible on the regional or national levels. While Zintan and Misrata developed into military and political heavyweights – with Misrata home to dozens of different militias – almost all large Libyan towns have their own brigades and military councils now. With its army and security apparatus in disarray, the government is largely unable to exercise territorial control in the face of the local forces, and is making only slow progress in re-establishing authority over border posts and airports – some of which continue to be controlled by militias.

It is at this local level that politics is most dynamic. On Feb. 20, Misrata elected a new local council after protests similar to the ones against the National Transitional Council; other major cities are to follow with local council elections in the coming weeks – Benghazi in April, and Tripoli in May. These are spontaneous local initiatives.

In contrast, national forces are still in their infancy, and new political parties have only mushroomed over the last few months. In early March, for example, Libya’s Muslim Brotherhood joined together with other moderate Islamist figures to form the Justice and Construction Party (Hizb al-Adala wal-Bina). However, local figures seem likely to dominate the June elections for the General National Assembly, where most of the representatives are to be chosen on the basis of individual constituencies. The delineation and weight of these constituencies has yet to be announced and could become a contentious issue for towns that perceive themselves to be underrepresented.

The dominance of locally based interest groups is also reflected in the recent clashes that have pitted militias from different towns or tribes against each other nationwide. In many cases, conflicts run along the divisions of the civil war, reflecting the fact that Gadhafi’s security apparatus was recruited from certain tribal constituencies rather than others. Attempts by one group to arrest or disarm members of another group have been among the most common triggers of such clashes, which have been more pronounced in western and southern Libya than in Cyrenaica – though rivalry has increased even there.

Following the announcement of the current government this past November, representatives of the Magharba and Awaqir clans demonstrated in Benghazi to demand greater political representation for their tribes. Leaders of the Obaydat tribe have clashed with other militia leaders in Benghazi over the slow progress of the investigation into the July 2011 murder of Major-General Abdul Fatah Younis Al-Obeidi, the former head of the Free Libyan Army. The Obaydat have repeatedly threatened to close roads or oil export terminals to exert pressure on others. In this environment, it remains difficult to imagine these different groups jointly pushing for regional unity – much less autonomy.

The local power centers seem more likely to push for the decentralization of the decision-making process to the local level. This would involve moving control of budgeting processes to towns or districts and thus cementing the influence those cities, towns, and tribes acquired during the civil war. Contrary to federalism, decentralization appears to enjoy widespread support – even within the central government, which has already committed to delegating authority to local councils.

The National Transitional Council only recently extended the timeframe for the Constitution-drafting process to four months, which is due to start after the elections planned for June. In a situation where there is no previous Constitution to build on (excluding the one in force during the monarchy) this is an extremely short timeframe.

That the debate over decentralization, federalism, and the role of local political entities has begun already is a welcome sign. But the sudden – though unsubstantiated – push at Barqa only proves that nothing can be taken as given in the negotiations over the fundamental tenets of Libya’s future government.

Wolfram Lacher works on North Africa at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik) in Berlin. His research focuses on Libya and security issues in the Sahara-Sahel region. This commentary first appeared at Sada, an online journal published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2012/Apr-03/168973-federalism-is-unlikely-in-libya-however-decentralization-is-probable.ashx#axzz1rdyrGpBS