Thanks for all your comments. I am not here to ramp or de-ramp. I am not sitting on a rig or in Africa. I cannot disclose what I do but I have reviewed lots of wells and development programs in the profession I work in. Some have hit, some u can saying they don't know what they are doing.
Lets go back again to march 7 announcement. They explicitly said WORKING (emphasis here) hc system. They could have just said hc shows which can mean motor oil on sand. Why would they say working? This technically would mean that enough fracturing and pressure has allowed hc to accumulate. They r lucky that the seal at 1600m was intact. Hence no migration to surfacewhich mean commercial oil. Otherwise how can it move.
There r two scenarios here:
1) the 400 m has extended into the qishn formation (which was reported being at that depth on the 19th) and hence nothing new to report as they mentioned. Further drilling can confirm a longer column. This has happened before like with gkp so it is not out of the ordinary.
2) nothing to report can mean the qishn formation is empty and hence all the oil is in that 400m. I speculate that there is nothing more down there unless there is another non fractured formation at the 3400 level. As I said most wells in Yemen are between 5000 and 7500 feet. The same is the new well discovered in Kenya.
Hence mike if Kenya and shabeel have the same pay geology, I don't think a 10km would be significant. I would be more worried about jka where they have surface seeps as they might have a harder time finding the intact reservoir.
I was invested in a company called vast exploration. Shallow seeps, komentan shows, etc... 900 m column. But guess what not commercial in the bottom where the 900 was. No cap above that. It seems that the fractured cap is deeper and now they need to drill another well with NIKO. Drill site was wrong.
I think and just speculating, 400m is a full pay. A first test should pump over 25000 barrel if good pressure. Those saying billions they probably run the scenario I explained earlier.
40% probably of success is there now for a reason. Working hc system not just hc shows.
U re free to copy and paste
