I have spent the last weekend in our part of the world here looking at
some information that I have at hand (well analysis and plans) in
additional to some technical knowledge of having to look at wells on a
daily basis for so many companies, their drilling plans, casings,
etc….
On Feb 23rd, they reached 1,230 meters and cased which means they have
gone through the first formation Jesomma (Shale / Sandstone /
Siltstone).
On March 7th they report that they have reached 2002 meters which
means they were just at the top of the Qishn primary target. The
interesting in that release is that they have said nothing encountered
above 1600M which is just above the Gumburu formation containing
(Shale / Siltstone/ Sandstone/Limestone). Then they say they have
encountered HC for 400M up to 2002 which is inline of where most
producing wells in Yemen Are. 80% of wells in Yemen range between
5,000 to 7,500 feet. Before they case and go into the Qishn, they must
do a wire-log to make sure they adjust based on shows (such as gas)
and any potential influx. At the same time rumors started flying that
it is commercial and I believe they have commercial oil in that part
and I will explain why.
On March 19th, they have reported a depth of 2,384 which mean they are
in the primary well. The plan is to do wire-line logging after TD of
3,800 m. However, nothing can prevent them from doing an intermediate
wire-log if they have encountered HC in the Qishn formation before
they proceed. I know I might get smacked by most of you on this. They
said they have nothing to report which means they are telling us the
primary reservoir has nothing!!! No (they already did before), Where
did it go? Guess what it has already migrated to the top 400M before
this formation as the closure is at 1600M instead of their anticipated
2100m. This means that the Qishn is a fill to spill up to the first
limestone at 1600. Remember that their data is based on 1950s and
1980s 2d seismic.
If we take the drilling rates between the above it is about 27M per
day which puts us today at 2900m give or take. The second target is at
3400m. I believe that on March 19th they have surpassed the Qishn
formation before its anticipated end at 2500 because they have put a
wire-line now and they know. If we get a report this week saying they
have encountered HC again during Amla’ah/Marib/Hammnlei formation this
means this wells if loaded up to 4,000m and would confirm offshore as
well.
Limestone starts again at 2500 which can be fractured to spill. At
3600 is the start of the basement which can be fractured.
When someone said they have found billions. This would have been
interpreted by people and engineers that since the Qishn formation has
already spilled up to the closure at 1600M, what can prevent this
happening from the basement up to the closure!!! Fill to Spill.
Hope the above helped.
