You cant possibly know that the 1Q will be as bad as the 4Q. With the new geologist, they may be mining from areas with a better gold yield.
Water problems are significant and being worked on, but as long as the gold/gravel ratio is better, they should be able to reclaim more gold even before the water issue is fixed. That's my take on it anyway. I'm certainly no mining expert but it seems like common sense.
You also can't know that they will be diluting any time soon. I believe it was said emphatically that there were no near term plans to raise capital, but it was something that would take place eventually either through stock or income if NRG was generating revenue.
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