Info, Abstracts, and Alpha

[BTH]

Yes, I took profits in ARIA. A little lower, between 15.60 and 14.55. I would be a buyer on strength again, as I still think the stock has a lot of upside (or, contrarily, on big macro weakness). '113 really is the key to another 10 point leg up; and, a hostile bid is always on the table - its really one of only a couple companies out there that have huge potential. I basically took profits because I want to wait and see what happens....and It was a great trade from the August lows. Still have a little though.

As far as CRIS. I truly believe the stock should be at least valued at 8-10 alone on their first drug, GDC-0449 (Erivedge). The BCC indication alone is actually a lot bigger than they are getting credit for right now. They got a broad FDA label on the drug which actually gives Doctors to possibly prescribe it in Gorlins patients and some operable cases as well. Theres a potential of 20k patients a year here... $7,500/month x 10 mos. IF they show any success in pacreatic, gastroesophogeal, or SCLC, or sarcoma, tack on another 500 million to $1 billion potential. GDC-0449 has the potential to be a $2 billion drug. The market is essentially giving no value to CUDC-101, or their three other compounds....its kind of a joke. CUDC-101 has the potential to begin a registration Phase 2 trial early next year....and it is given no value even though it has shown some really good early responses in refractory head and neck, and also refractory liver tumors. They also have a PI3K compound, and an HSP90 drug partnered with Debio which has shown some activity in NSCLC. All for a market cap of $350 million.

The only reason FMR, Wellington, etc., Baker, Sectoral, are not big in the name (IMO) is because its a lot easier to pick up a large chunk of stock in a financing, than it is to go to the open market. Look at their institutional ownership - for a company with a large revenue source in royalties going forward, and three other drugs, Sectoral, Baker Bros, FMR, Wellington, BB Biotech, Orbimed, BVF....none of these guys are in the name yet. No onwership at all. You want to be in before the start to pile in....IMO.