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WRAPUP 3-US jobless claims at 4-yr low, lift recovery hopes

* New jobless claims filings fall 5,000 to 4-year low

* Number on benefit rolls lowest since August 2008

* Leading economic indicator rises 0.7 percent

By Lucia Mutikani
Thu Mar 22, 2012 1:18pm EDT

WASHINGTON, March 22 (Reuters) - The number of Americans claiming new unemployment benefits dropped to a four-year low last week, bolstering hopes a recent pick-up in job growth will prove lasting.

Initial claims for state jobless benefits fell 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000, the lowest level since February 2008, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 354,000 last week.

A separate report showed a gauge aimed at predicting future U.S. economic activity rose sharply in February, pointing to strengthening growth. The data suggests a firming of U.S. economic activity even as China slows and the euro zone slumps.

"Although there is some indigestion, courtesy of China and continued economic and financial market challenges in Europe, domestically things here still support moderate economic growth," said Michael Strauss, chief economist at Commonfund in Wilton, Connecticut.

A four-week moving average of new claims, a better measure of trends, declined 1,250 to 355,000. The data covered the survey week for the government's report on March employment. New claims dropped 5,000 between the February and March survey periods, suggesting another month of solid job growth.

Employers added 227,000 jobs to their payrolls in February, taking the tally for the past three months to 734,000. While the unemployment rate held at 8.3 percent, it has come down 0.8 percentage point since August.

The data on Thursday had little impact on U.S. financial markets as investors worried about the global economy. Other reports showed Chinese manufacturing contracted for a fifth straight month in March, while factory activity in France and Germany declined sharply.

BETTER FORTUNES FOR U.S.

In contrast, U.S. manufacturing activity continues to expand, thanks to stepped-up motor vehicle production, which has led factories to add more workers and extra shifts.

And even the housing market, a major source of pain for the economy, is improving. H ome prices as measured by the Federal Housing Finance Agency were down 0.8 percent in January from a year-ago. In contrast, prices in January 2011 had been 4.6 percent lower than the year-earlier month.

Other data this week showed sales of previously owned homes at their second-highest level since May 2010 in February, and permits for homebuilding approaching a 3-1/2 year high.

Firming labor market conditions helped lift the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index 0.7 percent last month. Economists say while unseasonably mild weather has helped underpin the economy, a true labor market recovery was under way.

"There is more going on here than merely the benefits of a mild winter. We believe that stronger job creation will be sustained throughout 2012," said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York.

The claims report showed the number of people receiving benefits under regular state programs in the week ended March 10 after an initial week of aid fell to its lowest level since August 2008.

Despite the improving picture, long-term unemployment remains a major problem. About 43 percent of the 12.8 million out of work Americans in February had been jobless for more than six months.

A total of 7.28 million people were claiming unemployment benefits under all programs during the week ended March 3, the latest week for which data is available. That was down 142,499 from the prior week.

Copyright 2012 Thomson Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/22/usa-economy-idUSL1E8EM51B20120322 [with comment]


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UPDATE 3-Signs of recovery grow in U.S. housing market

* New home sales fall 1.6 percent in Feb to four-month low

* Median price surges 8.3 percent to eight-month high

* Prices up 6.2 percent from year-ago

By Lucia Mutikani
Fri Mar 23, 2012 5:13pm EDT

WASHINGTON, March 23 (Reuters) - The battered U.S.
housing market looks to be on the mend as buyers make a
tentative return and house prices stabilize.

Sales of new homes in February fell from January but jumped
more than 11 percent compared with the same month last year and
prices rose, according to data released on Friday
that was in line with other recent signs of a slow recovery.

Big challenges lie ahead, most notably in the form of a glut
of unsold properties - many of them foreclosures - and tight
lending by banks. But even if the recovery is slow and bumpy,
the worst of the six-year slump seems to be over.

"The housing market is slowly coming back. It's still a
depressed market, but it's getting better. We have a long way to
go," said Patrick Newport, an economist at Global Insight in
Lexington, Massachusetts.

New home sales slipped 1.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted
313,000-unit annual rate in February, the lowest since October,
but were up 11.4 percent in year-on-year terms, the Commerce
Department said.

The median new home price jumped 8.3 percent to an
eight-month high of $233,700. Compared with February last year,
the rise was 6.2 percent.

The report rounded off a week of mixed U.S. housing data and
followed a similar pattern seen in the bigger market for
existing homes - sales also fell in February, but stayed close
to their highest level in nearly two years and prices rose for
the first time on a yearly basis since November 2010.

Realtors say they are seeing higher traffic volume and are
moving more houses off the market than a few years ago.

"My listings are selling much more quickly compared to the
past few years, even approaching 2007 pre-crash levels," said
Lindsey Sanders, a Realtor with Muffley & Associates in Atlanta.
"I began seeing a meaningful uptick in open house traffic
last summer and it has continued to improve. I think this is a
combination of sellers finally becoming more willing to ask
market prices for their homes instead of bubble-level prices."
Builders tell a similar story. An index measuring confidence
among homebuilders held at a near four-year high this month and
they anticipated an increase in sales over the next six months.

While the pace of home construction fell last month, permits
for future projects approached a 3-1/2-year high. Much of the
activity is concentrated in the multi-family segment, as demand
for rentals soars.

SPOTTY RECOVERY

The recovery remains spotty. According to CoreLogic,
for every two homes sold, there is one that could be
foreclosed. It estimated the so-called shadow inventory of homes
at 1.6 million in January, down from 1.8 million a year ago.

KB Home, the fifth-largest U.S. homebuilder, on
Friday said net orders for new homes declined 8 percent in its
first quarter as cancellations rose.

"Don't expect this to be a broad-based, rocket-ship
recovery," said KB Homes Chief Executive Officer Jeff Mezger on
an earnings call. "The overall housing market is better, but
this is definitely a localized recovery ... and in some cases,
it's a zip-code-by-zip-code recovery."

KB's order decline was in sharp contrast to the strong order
growth reported by other U.S. homebuilders, including D.R.
Horton, Pulte and Lennar, who have
forecast an improving housing market.

While the pace of new home sales held above 300,000 units
for a sixth straight month, they are just over a fifth of their
1.389 million unit peak reached in July 2005.

"Mindful that more healing needs to be done, we expect new
home sales in 2012 to post their first annual increase in seven
years, rising 12 percent," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist
at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Last month, the inventory of new homes on the market was
unchanged at a record low 150,000 units. At February's sales
pace it would take 5.8 months to clear the houses from the
market, up from 5.7 months in January.

New home sales last month surged in the Northeast and West
but slumped in the South and Midwest.

New home sales account for about 7 percent of the overall
housing market and face stiff competition from the used home
segment despite low levels of stock.

"Buyers have been able to take their time as they have
little fear that prices or rates will get away from them.
Mortgage rates, though, are beginning to rise slowly and that
could continue through the rest of the year," said Joel Naroff,
chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland,
Pennsylvania.

"Add price increases to that and there is a little more
urgency to the decision. So while investors may be disappointed
by this report, I think better times are just about here so be a
little more patient."

Copyright 2012 Thomson Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/23/usa-economy-newhomes-idUSL2E8EN10D20120323 [with comments]


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U.S. Inches Toward Goal of Energy Independence
March 22, 2012
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/23/business/energy-environment/inching-toward-energy-independence-in-america.html [ http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/23/business/energy-environment/inching-toward-energy-independence-in-america.html?pagewanted=all ]


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To Stop Iran, the G.O.P. Should Back Obama
March 22, 2012
http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/22/to-stop-iran-the-g-o-p-should-back-obama/ [with comments]


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Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero) and David Corn (Mother Jones, Showdown)

The Wright Show
Recorded: Mar 12, 2012 — Posted: Mar 19, 2012

David's new book, "Showdown" - 7:51
http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/9268?in=02:22&out=10:13

Has Obama basically done the best job possible? 7:05
http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/9268?in=10:13&out=17:18

The Paul Ryan rope-a-dope - 4:01
http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/9268?in=17:18&out=21:19

David marvels at Obama's strategic patience - 7:51
http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/9268?in=21:18&out=29:09

Obama's cool killing of Osama - 8:05
http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/9268?in=29:10&out=37:15

The progressive critique of Obama that just isn't true - 10:15
http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/9268?in=40:03&out=50:18

Copyright 2012 bloggingheads.tv

http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/9268 [plays complete video (embedded); with comments] [via http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2012/03/does-obama-feel-divinely-ordained/254954/ (with comments)]


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Source of 'Etch a Sketch' gaffe is trusted Romney aide
Mar. 23, 2012
When a politician messes up, there is often a political guru standing ready to clean things up. But what happens when the guru makes a mess of his own?
That is the question for Eric Fehrnstrom, one of the most senior advisers to Mitt Romney. Part enforcer, part alter ego and often grim, Fehrnstrom is usually the one who is vigilant about staying on message.
But the morning after Romney's big win in the Illinois primary, Fehrnstrom blunted the Republican presidential front-runner's momentum by saying on CNN that Romney would "hit a reset button" in the general election.
"It's almost like an Etch a Sketch," Fehrnstrom said Wednesday. "You kind of shake it up, and we start all over again."
Romney's political opponents pounced. Etch a Sketch went viral. Suddenly the image of a children's toy erasing drawings with a simple shake reignited concerns about the certainty of Romney's conservatism.
The message didn't help Romney, nor did the messenger. Although Fehrnstrom is one of Romney's longest-serving aides, he, like his boss, has no roots in the conservative movement. Fehrnstrom started out as a reporter in Boston and lives in liberal Brookline, Mass. His work as a GOP operative has been confined to New England -- a region, as he often notes, that's "pretty rocky terrain for Republicans."
To some influential conservatives, Fehrnstrom is an enigma. It's not that conservatives don't trust him. It's that some don't even know him.
"I've never heard of him. I've been going to conservative meetings since I was knee-high to a grasshopper, and I've never seen him anywhere," said Craig Shirley, an adviser to conservative organizations who has worked for Newt Gingrich, one of Romney's opponents.
Despite the gaffe, it appears unlikely that Fehrnstrom will be demoted or lose his job. He is one of Romney's most trusted advisers -- if he worked for President Barack Obama, he would be a cross between David Axelrod and Robert Gibbs -- and Romney is fiercely protective of his loyalists.
[...]
http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2012/03/23/20120323etch-sketch-gaffe-source-trusted-romney-aide.html [with comments]


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