Elan Corp PLC (ELN)

[io_io]

Jeffries wakes up:

https://javatar.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=ba052f64-9754-4083-9f95-5fb4ac0a7d9d&mime=PDF&co=Jefferies&id=[e-mail]&source=libraryView&htmlToPdf=true

Key Takeaway

ELN should now start to move in front of the bapineuzumab P3 data (we guess
July). We find Tysabri alone worth $12-16, supporting our "buy bapi for free"
call. We find few who think bapi will succeed, suggesting there is little in the
stock. We project a 75% chance for FDA approval (which doesn't necessarily
mean we think both trials will hit both co-primary endpoints). We are hosting
a call today at 10AM today to elaborate.

Tysabri Upside in Q1. As was publicly stated March 6 at an investor conference, new
patient starts on Tysabri have already started to accelerate as a result of the assay rollout and
the new label. Hence we see upside to consensus Q1 revenue of $286M, and why we are at
$296M. This acceleration now is crucial for investor confidence that Tysabri is really worth
$12-16 since it requires (in our model) $3B in end-user sales in 2015.

Bapi Phase 3 at AAIC in July? While it remains unclear if J&J (JNJ, $65.03, Hold) will
present data at AAIC (July 14-19), it's hard for us to imagine why it would not do so (unless
of course, the full analysis is not ready by then). Since the carrier study has been completed
since June 2010, the only gating factor remains the noncarrier study and our guess is lastpatient/
last-visit is this spring. Since one scenario involves pooling all of the mild patients
from both studies.