Value Microcaps Food, Agriculture and Soft Commodities

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The current egg crisis in EU.

Egg prices are sky rocketing just before the traditional holiday of Easter. Thanks to the new Chicken Happiness Law effected Jan 1, 2012.

Bulgaria egg price "almost doubled in a few days" and EU egg whole sale price "nearly quadrupled over the past week". So far US egg price hasn't moved, but could start moving soon as EU changed from egg exporter to importer.

http://www.mail.com/int/news/europe/1118326-bulgarians-face-skyrocketing-egg-prices.html

http://www.triplepundit.com/2012/03/europes-woes-free-range-eggs/

My egg play is CALM. CALM produced 820 million dozen eggs in 2011. Every 10c/dozen price increase will translate into 82 million in pre-tax profits, about 3.4 dollar per share. If the egg price doubles like EU, we are looking at 40-50 dollar in pretax profits in a year(quadruple even better!) CALM will pay at least 1/3 of profit in dividends. CALM is heavily shorted, I don't know what the short will do, could generate more upside. Frankly, I think if US egg price rises about 10c CALM would more than double its earning, thus the dividend. The short case could be over.
In the last egg crisis of 2003, CALM 10 folded.