Water Boarding

[DiamondFire]

Why ATRN can beat Q1 and Q2 Revenues:





DiamondFire  

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Sunday, January 15, 2012 7:07:29 PM
Re: PatiencePaysOff79 post# 15846

Post # of 68252 
Why ATRN can beat 2011 Q1 and Q2 Revenues:

imvho!   

Here's Atrinsic's TOTAL revenues WITH Kazaa (which they no longer 'operate' for Brilliant Digital anymore) for the first 6 months of 2011:   

"Total revenue decreased $9.7 million, or 42%, to $13.3 million for the six months ended June 30, 2011 compared to $23.0 million for the six months ended June 30, 2010 due to the reasons discussed in the below analyses of segment operations."(page 25)  

http://www.otcmarkets.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=8097803  


...and here is their TOTAL revenues factoring JUST their Transactional Services for the first 6 months of 2011, which is what in fact will be ATRN's ONLY business going foward into 2012 (of course new and lucrative 'events' could always occur too...):  

"Transactional Service segment revenues decreased $5.7 million, or 47%, to $6.3 million for the six months ended June 30, 2011 from $12.0 million for the six months ended June 30, 2010.  Transactional revenue is principally derived from our search marketing agency business, which consists of targeted and measurable online campaigns and programs for advertisers to generate qualified customer leads, sales transactions, or increased brand recognition.  The decrease in revenue was due to reduced advertising expenditures by our clients and the restructuring of our lead generation business in which we eliminated a number of unprofitable (on a gross margin basis) revenue lines. As a result of this restructuring, the bulk of our Transactional revenue now consists of revenue generated from our search agency business, together with higher yielding marketing campaigns." (page: 26)  

http://www.otcmarkets.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=8097803   


So Atrinsic only needs to top $13.3 million total revenues for the first 6 months of 2012 to beat both 2011 Q1 and Q2 revenues - or for more of a 'apples to apples' comparison: they only need more than a $6.3 million total for their Transactional Services for the first half of this year.  

How can this be done? Enter the Dragon Stuart Goldfarb as ATRN's new CEO. On June 1st, 2011, with only 30 days left in Q2 and first half of the 2011 financial year, this no less then industry darling took the reigns over at Atrinsic:  


"Stuart Goldfarb Named President and CEO of Atrinsic, Inc.   

Leading Direct Marketing and Media Executive To Drive Future Growth of Company...  

...From 2001 – 2009, Goldfarb was President and CEO of Bertelsmann Direct North America (now known as Direct Brands, Inc.), which he built into the world’s largest direct marketer of music, DVDs and books (with over 20 subscription and membership “club” businesses including BMG Music Service, Columbia House, Book-of-the-Month Club, Doubleday Book Club and yourmusic.com), serving over 14 million members with revenues of over $1.2 billion and 2,300 employees, through acquisition, efficient consolidation of operations and introduction of new direct marketing practices to revitalize shrinking legacy businesses.   

Earlier in his career with Bertelsmann, Goldfarb was responsible for the Bertelsmann eCommerce Group’s digital distribution and ecommerce activities in the United States, including cdnow.com (leading online retailer of music) and myplay.com (pioneering digital music locker service). Goldfarb was President and CEO of bol.com, Bertelsmann’s online retailer of books and music doing business in Europe and Asia. He was a member of the Executive Board of Bertelsmann Direct Group and recipient of the first Bertelsmann Award for Outstanding Entrepreneurial Achievements.   

Before joining Bertelsmann, Stuart was Vice Chairman of ValueVision Media Inc., which operates ShopNBC, a cable television home shopping and e-commerce company, which has strategic alliances with NBC and GE. Prior to this, Stuart held a number of executive positions with NBC, including Executive Vice President, Worldwide Business Development. He was the principal architect of NBC’s strategic alliances with Dow Jones, National Geographic, ValueVision and Polo Ralph Lauren. He served as Co-Chairman of National Geographic Channels (a joint venture with National Geographic Television) and on the Boards of Ralph Lauren Media (polo.com) and CNBC Europe and Asia.   

Stuart is presently on the Boards of Directors of Atrinsic, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATRN) and Vitacost.com (NASDAQ:VITC), a leading online retailer and direct marketer of health and wellness products. He has a JD from Hofstra University School of Law and a BA from Adelphi University."   

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110601005991/en/Stuart-Goldfarb-Named-President-CEO- Atrinsic   


...so do we see a 'Goldfarb - effect' in the Q3 10q and his first full Q as the new CEO? Yes we do see significant changes to Atrinsics Expenses which are down across the board:   

1) ATRN's Transactional Service segment REVENUES decreased by only 5% for nine months ended september 30th, 2011.   

2) ATRN's Transactional Service segment EXPENSES decreased by $3.2 million or 16%.   

3) ATRN's Product and Distribution EXPENSES decreased by $1.4 million or 53%.   

4) ATRN's Selling and Marketing EXPENSES decreased by $.08 million or 28%.   

5) ATRN's General, administrative and other operating EXPENSES decreased by $1.7 million or 24%.   

6) ATRN's Depreciation and amortization decreased by $0.3 million or 34% to $0.6 million. (pages 27 and 28)  

http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=8241320-1137-200955&type=sect&dcn=0001144204-11-064110   


...and looking up any bio on Goldfarb and you usually see that he is an expert, among other things, in 'consolidation of operations': so yes looking above it seems he has been doing just this here at ATRN as CEO. Trimming the fat, and perhaps going so far as to trim expensive accounting fees needed to audit financials to keep listed on the NASDAQ: he lol! voluntary de-listed from NASDAQ! If nothing else this did save some money imo in Q4 of last year. But whether brilliant move or insane is yet to be seen: but talk about a powerful message he sent to each and every employee at Atrinsic...   


But let's get back to some other Q numbers here, and namely their Transactional Services which are what they only do NOW going foward, as they terminated their Kazaa deal with Brilliant Digital last December. Remember that $13.3 million TOTAL revenue and the $6.3 million TRANSACTIONAL revenue ATRN generated in the first 6 months of last year? Well check out what their Transactional Services did in the first full Quarter that Goldfarb was CEO of, Q3 of 2011:   


"Transactional Service segment revenues increased $4.9 million, or 100%, to $9.8 million for the three months ended September 30, 2011 from $4.9 million for the three months ended September 30, 2010.  Transactional revenue is principally derived from our search marketing agency business, which consists of targeted and measurable online campaigns and programs for advertisers to generate qualified customer leads, sales transactions, or increased brand recognition.  The increase in revenue was primarily related to sales volume improvement from existing clients as well as new client acquisitions during the third quarter. The increase was offset by the restructuring of our lead generation business in which we eliminated a number of unprofitable (on a gross margin basis) revenue lines.  As a result of this restructuring, the bulk of our Transactional revenue 
now consists of revenue generated from our search marketing agency business, together with higher yielding marketing campaigns." (page: 24)  

http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=8241320-1137-200955&type=sect&dcn=0001144204-11-064110  


So in Stuart Goldfarb's first full quarter at Atrinsic as CEO, yes Kazaa was still losing the most money per quarter (as usual) @ ATRN, but the Transactional Services segment increased a full 100% year over year for Q3 posting a big number of $9.8 million for the quarter(!).   


...do you see where this is going?  


ATRN did $6.3 million in Transactional Services for the ENTIRE first half and 6 months of 2011: Q3 of 2011 under Goldfard they generated $9.3 million in revenues, almost 1.5 times higher Transactional Services revenues than the first 6 months. And even more surprising is that ATRN did almost 75% of revenues in Q3 alone when compared to their TOTAL REVENUES of $13.3 million WITH KAZAA these same first 6 months of 2011.  


...this is one full quarter under Stuart Goldfarb. One.  


Meaning with say just two Trasactional Service revenues of $7 million in Q1 and Q2 of 2012: ATRN will surpass the combined revenue they generated in 2011 with both their Transactional and Kazaa businesses.  


And all this without the big RED losses from Kazaa going foward each quarter....and yes if this happens - the Market will notice.   


I want you guys to think about this, especially now that all Goldfarb's energies and company resources will be focused like a laser beam on the business they have, Transational Services. Goodbye then to Kazaa - it brought very exciting prospects to ATRN's future, but I think after losing so much money for so many quarters and jeapordizing Atrinsic's bottom line, Stuart Goldfarb, like with so many other things his resume points too: simply cut the fat...and let Kazaa and its money-draining business reality/nightmare go....  


So with all this being said: do you think they will beat their Q1 and Q2 2011 numbers, just with their Transactional busines alone?  


We still have to see if this 'Goldfarb - effect' plays out when we get the Q4 numbers for 2011, BUT: at less then a dime stock, and ATRN with a CEO like Goldfarb, and with a solid Transactional Service online ad business that finds itself in a rapidly growing market and industry, AND now we find out that on February 1st of Q1, 2012, they are bringing to market their new Spyder search software to their existing and potential clients: 

http://www.atrinsicspyder.com/

YES: I do believe in my honest opinion that Atrinsic will beat their 2011 Q1 and Q2 revenues. 

...and we all have the priveledge to buy shares right now so cheaply before this all plays out...all we need is the patience, and no nuclear bombs thrown at us by Goldfarb and company to see us through to imo multiple dollars for ATRN once again. Of course they have to pay off Brilliant which will hurt their bottom line, (...though it's still undetermined as to how much they have paid so far...) but if they post a couple more near $10 million dollar quarters like Q3: then I think this can be done...