chartists can't be always right, especially in the
commodities markets.. when equity chartists try to chart
commodity futures they often overestimate the power of
charts. For example, Ron Walker (chart pattern trader) was
wrong about gold yesterday. I went the other way. I know
the gold market is an enigma beyond the power of the quant
programs, and that technical analysis can only go so far
to negatively impact the price of gold. Gold quickly snapped
back above it's 200dma.
The oil market is like this also. I also believe UCO puts
or SCO calls will be a play soon. On the break of 105/bbl
crude to the downside, or the resistance of 115 to the upside.
Macro events include the lessening of impending Israel/Iran conflict due to Iran allowing deeper inspections, and the new program of US AG Holder which is looking into ways to regulate the oil futures markets with an aim to reduce the abilities of Wall St speculators to drive up prices. How effective that may be, we don't know, and can't trust them either, as Obama is funded by Wall St speculator firms. The global economies' lowering growth forecasts recently provides the better argument for lower oil.
Concerning the market indexes at this moment, I'm waiting until
after the jobs report before deciding on whether or not to short
again. Chartists like Ron Walker seem to be firm that a 1-2-3
setup on the S&P is happenning where resistance in the upper 1360s
or max high 1370s is coming and that phase 3 will break the S&P to the downside under 1340.
Perhaps, but there's no reason to position anything now. He's also wrong about the Greece debt deal, which he says won't happen, totally wrong, it will happen. Greece can force it and said they will force it. Combine this with jobs report and we have the likelihood of higher averages which then will provide another short opportunity, but not until after they are in.
I am continuing to hold Apr DUST 38 puts.
