Mlsoft,
Even if the war part of the Iraq business goes well, the peace part of the equation will be enormously expensive, unless of course the US uses Iraqi oil revenue to subsidize its presence there. Even that will have blowback, though: the price of oil will drop precipitously, giving economies a nice break, but will turn the Arab economies into shambles, leading to even greater instability there as their leaders keep trying to keep a lid on unrest and keep trying to maintain their power.
If we just leave Iraq without establishing a stable govt, there will be years of bloodshed. Even in we stay, the odds of establishing a stable govt aren't great, with the mutual hatred of its various groups no longer held in check by their fear of Saddam. Its possible, but only over a long period of years. I heard not too long ago that things in Bosnia and Serbia are going better, which is why we haven't heard much from them. This may or may not be true, but if it is, it is hopeful. But it is still a precarious situation, and that is the way Iraq will be for years to come, matter what we do in the Aftermath.
In any case, the way this Iraq thing has been played, our deficit will soar and so will the debt. No ARMs for me, or, IMO, for any sensible person, whatever the differential in rates right now.
AI
