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Re: roughnearedges post# 18746

Tuesday, 08/09/2005 2:54:11 PM

Tuesday, August 09, 2005 2:54:11 PM

Post# of 173893
roughnearedges re VPHM. I was expecting price weakness due to the one time convertible expense. Company mgmt did an excellent job of informing institutions prior to qtr end so there were no surprises. In addition they did a nice job of holding CC explaining convertible issues and then reiterated during earnings CC. The net effect is that the price held up quite well and , in fact, moved up sharply prior to q2 earnings, even though we knew the results would be well below q1.

So we had a nice euphoric run to $13 prior to earnings but the actual numbers were about as expected. So there is going to be profit taking. Many are cashing in a double, triple, four bagger. Some probably got nudged when the price dropped .80, then a buck, now over $2. Can't blame them.

I got in later and am buying options expecting a price recovery after q3 earnings, at the latest. Q4 could have some positive surprises due to the trials data and possible Pleconaril milestone payment. Either could be cause for a mini-rally.

If you are playing the value game, you are by definition, holding something that others don't think is very valuable. You are expecting that you have uncovered a mistake in pricing by the market. If you still think your research is correct, you should hold until the market corrects the mispricing. Sometimes that takes longer than we like but it is the basis of our "Value" investing.

Review the reasons why you bought VPHM. See if anything has changed and balance it against your own financial needs and appetite for risk. Then decide whether to Hold'Em or Fold'Em and wait for another hand. Bobwins


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