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Re: slyestjester post# 8971

Sunday, 03/04/2012 8:28:42 AM

Sunday, March 04, 2012 8:28:42 AM

Post# of 163718

I was also encouraged by the optimism he expressed for more contracts:

"We expect this trend to continue further as more interest develops for the A-Power technology in China."

I wouldn't go so far as to expect this to mean more contracts are known, or certain. But I'm sure a lot of prospects are going through the demo farm, which probably is just now starting to deliver sales approaching capacities.

With continued demonstration of not only concept, but success, yes, have to believe that there will be another sale of this magnitude some time this year. I don't even allow myself to think about multiple new contracts.

It seems that the fishery model has improved from a year or two ago. They seem to be selling contracts to build fisheries with 2,000 tonne capacities, rather than 250 or 500 tonnes. I believe that this capacity takes a year after construction completion to commence, and is accomplished by feeding larger fish from outdoor ponds into the APM system. The press release did not quote the capacity, but did say: "The facility is projected to develop some 2.8 billion prawn fingerlings in its first year of operation."

So in year two of operation, if prawns sell for the same as sleepy cod. each prawn farm can produce up to $46M in sales.

The 2013 revenue projection for fish sales is $127M. That's about 5,500 tonnes, or 3 fisheries running near full capacity. Don't know if they will get there with current farms, but with expansions and any new contracts 2012, seems reasonable, with 2014 substantially higher.

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