Lyric Jeans (LYJN)

[99percent]

FY2011 Financials revealed ahead of schedule!(estimated)
Below my estimates I have also posted: Actual Financial Data provided by Lyric shows significant revenue growth, year over year.

Since this was prepared, new jewelry and tshirts hit thousands of Walmart stores at the end of 2011 possibly adding significantly to these figures($500k - $1M)

Lyric sales in 2011 consisted of:
-Lyric Nation collection at Walmart
-Lyrix collection at Claire's
-John Lennon collection at Bloomingdale's
-Scarf collections and jewelry collection at Nordstrom
-Various Lyric Culture apparel and accessories at Hard Rock
Hotels and 100s of specialty boutiques worldwide
-online sales

Lyric Nation-
The collections I've seen consisted of about a dozen each of 42 -designs(450-500 pieces). As of a few weeks ago about 80% had sold. I've seen other pictures posted that did not appear to have as many pieces depicted, but there have also been reports of reorders. I don't know if I necessarily believe everything said, so I assume some stores had a couple hundred items, and others had closer to 500 like the ones I saw. Also the number of stores has been reported to be 1500-2000. I will use 400 pieces times 1500 stores, or 300 pieces times 2000 stores, or 600,000 pieces. Items retailed $4.88 - $6.88, and I have chosen an average wholesale price of $2.88.
Revenue for Lyric = $1.7M

Lyrix-
The Lyrix collection was reportedly carried at around 800 stores nationwide, and I observed the collection in a half dozen stores. Each Claire's store receives weekly or biweekly shipments of a variety of product to replenish what has been sold. So, let's say they only sold 1-2 items per day on average, or 10 a week. Retail price is $10-$12. So, let's say Lyric gets only $4. For the year, Lyrix will have been at Claire's for 39 weeks. $4/item times 10items/week times 39 weeks times 800 stores equals $1.25M

Bloomingdale's-
In February Bloomingdale's received a couple new and reordered more of the half dozen other men's shirts from the John Lennon collection that they started carrying in October. Let's say they only received 4 dozen, or 50 shirts times 40 stores times $20/shirt equals $40k.

Nordstrom-
As far as I know, only 34 of the approximately 110 Nordstrom stores, those that have a "trend accessories" department, carry the Lyric product. That I know of, there was a collection of jewelry and scarves in May, scarves in September, scarves in November, and I hear(facebook post) that there are more scarves for the Holidays. Very conservatively, that is 4 collections of a dozen scarves, and a collection of 4 dozen pieces of jewelry. Wholesale price of each item was about $58, so let's say Lyric gets $28. That's 100 items 34 stores times $28 equals $95k

Hard Rock-
Reorders in February, and a summer collection of at least 7 dozen shirts. Let's say 10 dozen total or 120 times 10 stores times $24/shirt equals $28k

Boutiques-
3 dozen items per boutique times times $24/item times 100 boutiques equals $86k/100 boutiques. In early 2008 they reported over 300 boutique accounts nationwide(prior to their expansion into the worldwide market). But let's say there was some pull back due to the economy, but that they've also acquired some new accounts and just leave that figure at 300+. That equals over $250k

Online sales-
Some days they sell a bunch other days nothing. I believe their average to be one order per day. Let's say 350 for the year, and that the average order is $100. That's $35k.

Wild Card-
They may very well have product we do not know about in places we do not know about. $XXXk

Statement of Income
For the Year Ended December 31, 2011
estimated and prepared externally by 99percent
Sales - $3,398,000
Cost of Sales - $2,038,800
Gross Profit - $1,359,200
Operating and other expense - $1,079,200
Net Income - $280,000

Like I've been saying, Lyric is currently breaking through that profitability barrier. Now, LOOK OUT!

Disclosure: My analysis represents an estimate - based on nothing more than observation, and educated guesses as a long term shareholder only.
But, it will be very interesting to see how close it really is!

Actual Financial Data provided by Lyric shows significant revenue growth, year over year. A growth pattern of 50% supports the estimates I have made. The observations of market presence certainly back this up:
A History of Lyric Culture - Part I,II,III,and on
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=69490361

Revenue Growth
2007-2008......163%
2008-2009......32%
2009-2010......(estimate)50% 2010 revenue (estimate)$2,283,094.97
2010-2011......(estimate)50% 2011 revenue (estimate)$3,424,642.45
And what did I come up with for 2011? $3,398,000. It all seems pretty consistent, and reasonable.

In addition, as you can see in olive, the company has maintained Operating Expenses of just under $1M, year over year.

note: You'll see that there is a significant drop in gross profit in 2009. This was a result of 25% slash in prices that occurred that summer to meet the demands of an increasingly turbulent economy. The company has focused on maintaining these very competitive prices ever since.

The following information was provided by the company to the OTC Markets Disclosure and News Service:
http://www.otcmarkets.com/financialReportViewer?symbol=LYJN&id=33967
Statement of Income
For the Year Ended December 31, 2009
Unaudited and Internally Prepared by Management
Sales.......................................$1,522,063.31
Cost of Sales .................................936,251.28
------------------------------------------------------------
Gross Profit ..................................585,812.03

Operating Expenses
Design Expenses................................210,726.67
Selling and Shipping Expenses..................338,565.85
General and Administrative Expenses............424,558.29
------------------------------------------------------------
Total Operating Expenses.......................973,850.81
------------------------------------------------------------
Income (Loss) from Operations.................(388,038.78)

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Statement of Income
For the Year Ended December 31, 2008
Unaudited and Internally Prepared by Management
Sales.......................................$1,154,002.34
Cost of Sales..................................472,230.75
------------------------------------------------------------
Gross Profit...................................681,771.59

Operating Expenses
Design Expenses................................283,018.84
Selling and Shipping Expenses..................352,846.56
General and Administrative Expenses............332,548.58
------------------------------------------------------------
Total Operating Expenses.......................968,413.98
------------------------------------------------------------
Income (Loss) from Operations.................(286,642.39)

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Statement of Income
For the Year Ended December 31, 2007
Unaudited and Internally Prepared by Management
Sales.........................................$439,287.15
Cost of Sales..................................314,521.48
------------------------------------------------------------
Gross Profit...................................124,765.67

Operating Expenses
Design Expenses.................................90,722.66
Selling and Shipping Expenses..................428,572.73
General and Administrative Expenses............495,666.06
------------------------------------------------------------
Total Operating Expenses.....................1,014,961.45
------------------------------------------------------------
Income (Loss) from Operations.................(890,195.78)