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Re: realfast95 post# 108

Thursday, 03/01/2012 4:25:33 PM

Thursday, March 01, 2012 4:25:33 PM

Post# of 210
Despite the fact that options expire, you certainly would not use a forward month contract with less time value than the time frame for which this transaction should occur. I've used hedge strategies with several M&A plays and what is typical with those is a date is typically indicated in any PR or 8K announcing said deal that specifies a time frame during which the transaction should conclude. That isn't present here which even if it were optionable, I wouldn't play it because you would need that variable known to select the proper forward month contract to arbitrage the play. This whole deal is very amateurish which is yet another reason that I wouldn't play it. And I suspect the market isn't convinced either insofar as the arbitrage spread indicating an excessively risky proposition with a low probability of occurrence.