Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[adreamer]

For the sake of Ariad investors - a market based analysis of the Iran attack risk----

The odds on the Middle East

The system works a bit like a stock exchange: you buy a share at a certain price, or probability, and then if the chances of that event happening rise, then more people are likely to buy shares, in which case the price goes up and you can sell to cash in the difference. Buying $31 of shares on Assad leaving by mid-June would net you a $69 profit if it happened by then.

Some of Intrade’s other probabilities make interesting reading. The chances of an overt US or Israeli strike on Iran before 31 March are only 11.8%, and before 30 June they are 23.4%. But they jump to 42.5% when the deadline is before the end of September. Clearly, something about the timing of July, August or September makes an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities far more likely.