Some details should be a matter of public record, and some details would not be. If you can get information from a broker, then maybe you could get even more granularity than you really want. But someone should have this information:
When has Credit Suisse issued new shares, and on what criteria? Also, when do they buy back shares? There should be records showing that TVIX was at "X" price, and the VIX indicated it should be at "X +Y" or "X - Y." Then they would have taken a very specific action to adjust the price. We might be able to find out exactly what they did to adjust it, and exactly what effect it had.*
I am assuming that the price is undervalued right now, so there is no reason to issue new shares. The news itself could cause volatility in the price. But over time, I would expect a GRADUAL rise in price, rather than a sudden jump. The announcement indicates that when the price rises of its own accord by trading, Credit Suisse will allow it to rise without "correcting" it downward. That is, until it reaches some level they are comfortable with.*
This avoids the problem of a reverse split, so I don't think we need to worry about that happening.*
The price could jump upward suddenly, if they decide to buy back shares.*
I don't really "know" anything here. I'm just guessing. But if you can get the "professionals" to tell you something useful, I hope you will pass it on to the rest of us.*
I have just reset my limit order to sell half of my shares for in-and-out trading. I was expecting 21 dollars, and then I lowered it to $19.90. Now I don't know what to do with that. I'm hoping to buy back around 17, and keep trading it up and down. But in any case, I will hold onto the other half of the shares, in case it suddenly shoots upward.*
If this news means what I think it means, then anyone expecting to buy back at much less than the current price might have a long wait.*
