MRoth: Rogue:
MRoth: I think you make an overall good point. 3% of a bigger pie COULD be even more than 9% of a smaller pie and it could be more for a generation or longer.
Let's use oil usage as a proxy for China's economy and the US economy. China uses 7 million barrels a day. The US uses 21 million barrels a day. Three times more usage. Let's assume that China's usage goes up 9% a year forever. Let's assume the US's usage goes up 3% a year forever. How long would it take for China to surpass the US? Go ahead and guess. I'll put the answer at the bottom.
Obviously, there could be a myriad of issues that would affect how soon China's economy passed ours. Trade issues, wars, depressions, currency, debt and on and on and on. However, purely based on the 9% vs 3% issue and assuming their economy to be approximately 1/3 of ours based on oil usage, the amount of time that it would take for China to pass the US is below.
Remember, whether they have over a billion people or not and whether they are coming out of the dark ages of Communism or not, you don't undo 100 years of astronomically superior growth by the US in just a handful of years UNLESS other external GRAVE issues come into play. And, they may!
The answer to the question is....
20 years.
Len
Warren Buffet: 5 minutes and 17 seconds of pure, unadulterated, bulletproof, flawless logic.
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