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Thursday, August 04, 2005 10:03:08 AM
Thanks for an excellent post petemantx, sorry it got buried in all the BS... Here is my lil DD on this.
Those of you who've known me for a long time know that I have always congratulated ERHE on positive steps (there have been quite a few this past year) but also that I call it like I see it.
In a nutshell, at THIS time I believe that your concerns are well-founded, and no, you're not out in left field.
To my eyes and those of very experienced investor friends, it is obvious that Offor has been using ERHC as his personal piggybank by issuing more stock here and there, and working with some MMs to dump into any serious run (NOT every day as some seem to believe, that's left to regular swing traders, just substantial runs) in order to keep the SP at whatever level he needs at a given time and/or accumulate yet more cheapo shares.
We were hoping that it would stop early this year, but alas it didn't. The moving of his shares offshore via Chrome, while having definite advantages in terms of protecting the company against a takeover by XOM or others (even our "partners" would probably be extremely interested because of the unprecedented magnitude of the rights that were confirmed by recent awards, none of these are choir boys...) also allows him to do whatever the hell he pleases, and the reporting requirements are next to nil. NOT good. Note also that since early June (awards) there has been no substantial institutional buying. It's not for lack of eyes out there (there are many hawks...) but I'm 99% sure that it's because they are VERY uncomfortable with this very large offshore holding, as are we "regular" shareholders.
BTW, some keep bringing FAB and their measly 70 mil shares or so, as a major player here. While it's possible that they have been hurting the SP post-awards too, by shorting or working with a hedge fund, on the grand scale of things I don't believe they are a factor. One reason is that from what I understand it's not just Emeka who has the lion's share via Chrome, his associates, kids, and even his wife all own ERHE shares either directly or indirectly, and you can be sure that those aren't lil 500K chunks. In other words, Offor & co most likely own far more than 50% of the company.
What is Offor like? My DD paints him as a fairly typical businessman, not a "great" man (could happen, he's still young) but a shrewd, successful businessman who has been so successful BECAUSE he is solely interested in his own gain. He is a mix of Western and Traditional African cultures and smartly draws strengths from both. Offor COULD easily take steps to reassure shareholders, such as simply sending us a letter that states his overall goals for ERHE for the next 5-10 years, or stopping his current, incredibly short-sighted accumulating at 40 cents and let the stock climb to a more normal level (there are hundreds of companies out there in "emerging state" that trade way higher with way less "in the pot") but so far he hasn't. He has a long way to go to understand how the markets work, and I am indeed concerned that he seems to still listen to those of his advisors who keep telling him that the "Nigerian way" is good here too. It isn't. In Africa, friend flips to foe in an instant, but it's on a small scale and it's very manageable. Here it takes much longer, but it's on a totally different scale, and the forces at play are huge. Pete, I don't believe you were on board at the time, but I have stated and I do maintain that Emeka Offor has the POTENTIAL to be a "great man" (as rich and well-known as Bill Gates within one or two decades, and definitely one of Africa's great stories) IF he understand that he needs to move ERHE to a mainstream market and play by the rules. One simply doesn't get there by playing games and using loopholes at the fringe of the OTC.
I do believe the PXD / NBL alliances help, but until Offor moves his shares back to the U.S. - which would likely allow substantial institutional investing by those small and aggressive institutions and be an almost-immediate, very large benefit to his holdings - allows a substantial buyin by say, PXD, and stops stifling the stock's value, the "Nigerian con man" spectrum will keep floating right over his head.
Regarding Mongo, I will post a separate message.
Beam me up $cotty...
Gig
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