Thursday, February 16, 2012 3:57:51 PM
I would use the 10.5 million shares since the other 4 million are technically non-existent right now. They will be at some point in the future but not now.
A PE of 30 is a bit low for a high growth company but still in line with other cable companies which is the only real comparison we have unless you use Netflix which I belive has a PE around 29.
The 15% profit margin is the variable! We really don't know the cost associated with this business model (Netflix is around 7.5%). Since they essentially gave Warner Brothers warrants/options on shares and aren't really paying for the content. This increase on the profit margin side will be offset by the increase in shares when they exercise them which dilutes share value. Has anyone heard what the new announcement (lionsgate) is costing?.
Also, you cannot assume that the $27/year is going directly to YOD. The actual cable companies will be getting a portion of that income. Remember YOD is the middle man here.
The big variable is the number of subscribers. If they can truely get into 150 million homes and only get 10% I will be happy. Netflix has around 20 million and China is a much bigger market.
Otherwise, the numbers are reasonable.
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