What to expect in 2003
By Gil Brandt
Special to NFL.com
(Editor's note: The 2002 season is over, but now's the time to look at what worked in 2002, and what fans might see in 2003.)
The teams
Over the last four years, there have been four different Super Bowl winners, all of them first-timers: St. Louis, Baltimore, New England and Tampa Bay. This tells me that there is a very good chance we will have a new winner next season, and it could possibly be a team that has not won before.
So let's start thinking about some teams that fit this category. Atlanta, Cleveland, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Philadelphia and Tennessee have yet to win a Super Bowl, and should have good teams next year capable of going to Super Bowl XXXVIII. Of these six teams, Atlanta and Indianapolis are in the best shape cap-wise for the upcoming season (the cap is projected to be around $75 million).
We also had five new teams in the playoffs this year that were not there in 2001: Atlanta, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Tennessee and the New York Giants. I think we again could have five new teams in 2003, and here are some candidates: Buffalo, Miami, Minnesota, San Diego and Seattle. Regarding the Vikings, they have Michael Bennett , Randy Moss and Bryant McKinnie -- they have a pretty good offense. And they're $30 million under the cap.
I think Tampa Bay will make the playoffs again next year, but we have to remember a few things. For example, they were the third-oldest team in the league this past season, and there were only 17 instances when a regular starter didn't start (sixth-fewest in the league).
Super Bowl MVP Dexter Jackson is a free agent following a solid year.
The Bucs will also have four starters -- three of them on defense -- who will become free agents for this coming season. Two of them are starting linebackers -- Shelton Quarles and Al Singleton -- and the other is Super Bowl MVP safety Dexter Jackson. In addition, quarterbacks Shaun King and Rob Johnson are eligible for free agency. At this time, the Bucs are just a little over next year's projected cap figure at $76,896,000, so to keep these guys they'll have to do some maneuvering. Now the Bucs did a great job of replenishing their team with free agents this offseason, and it was because they had cap money available, just like some of the above-mentioned teams do.
The playing field
On offense, look for teams to pass even more than they did in 2002. Remember, none of the regular season's top eight rushers in the AFC went on to the postseason. You have to go all the way down to Eddie George to find a playoff team that had a top rusher in the AFC.
Teams will spread the field even more and come out with more empty backfields or shift out of formations with the backs going from being behind the center to being spread out wide. If you look at how running backs like Charlie Garner and Amos Zereoue were used, you'll understand this. Also look to see more motion from teams to keep defenses from zone-blitzing as much.
Look for receivers to run more slant routes against man coverage, like Keyshawn Johnson does, and more seam routes against the zone blitz.
Defensively, teams will work in the offseason to come up with a bigger package against spread offenses. A lot of defensive coordinators didn't think that the spread was going to be as prevalent as it was this year, so no one developed a complete package like they will. Surely, defensive coordinators will be prepared. They'll also work to have better adjustments against all of the motion offenses.
Now remember, the West Coast offense is very good and causes a lot of problems for the defense. For a long time, it was a stair-step situation where offenses got ahead and defenses had to catch up. I'm not sure with the West Coast system that defenses will ever catch up. They just seem to come up with more and more innovative things.
I don't think we'll see an increase in the amount of teams playing a 3-4 style of defense. Last year, Atlanta was one team that successfully made the switch. We might, but I don't think it will be a pronounced trend. But if a team has the right players, it can pull it off.
Everyone is trying to match up player versus player now. During the Super Bowl, the Raiders had linebacker Travian Smith on Bucs receiver Joe Jurevicius , and that just wasn't a match. Also during the Super Bowl, we saw Raiders receiver Jerry Porter playing wide when he spent most of the season in the slot. The way Tampa Bay covers, when it put Dwight Smith in the game as its third corner, Ronde Barber became the guy covering the slot receiver, which is why Porter was held down some. I think coordinators will work harder on the mismatches.
I think we're also going to see more people on defense work very hard at stripping the ball away from receivers after the catch. And conversely, I think you'll see offensive coordinators work a lot harder at preventing this from happening. It's not the concept of the defense, but another tool they can use to their advantage.
The games
If you think 2002 was an exciting year with a record number of overtime games, plenty of teams in contention for precious playoff spots, and close games week in and week out, 2003 will even be better. There are so many new teams emerging and so many young players coming to the forefront. It's like meeting a sales quota as a salesperson; if you meet a goal, it will be set higher the next year, and if you reach that it will be set even higher, and so on. The bar keeps getting set higher because there are more kick returns and interceptions for touchdowns, more passes completed, more 300-yard games and such. I guess some place along the way this stuff is going to stop.
Extra points
On the Thursday before the Super Bowl, a non-player played the role of Rich Gannon in a Bucs practice. Know who it was? Who else but Jon Gruden, who used to coach Gannon and played quarterback at the University of Dayton. He came out and instituted fake pumps and other quarterback tricks to throw the defense off balance. I thought that was pretty good. ... The winning share for each Buccaneer was $63,000. Warren Sapp flew up to Los Angeles to be a guest on the debut show of Jimmy Kimmel Live and was paid $250,000. He worked all week in preparation for the Super Bowl, earned his share of the winnings, then got paid more than four times that amount to be on television for less than an hour. ... Starting soon, NFL.com will be the home of lots of analysis for the 2003 NFL Draft. Want a taste? Here are four players who looked pretty good in bowl games and really increased their draft "worth": Kevin Curtis, WR, Utah State; Bobby Wade, WR, Arizona; Bennie Joppru, TE, Michigan; and Kevin Williams, DL, Oklahoma State.
