In round #'s I believe the company should get sold for something like $3/share in a cash transaction or more if a share-for-share exchange (and the amount more would depend on how large the acquirer was and how liquid their stock was). At $3/share the acquirer would be paying about $51M. With about $9M of XBOR debt currently outstanding (now that their 4.5M bank line is fully drawn), that would mean that including the assumed debt the acquirer would be paying $60M. Putting reasonable risk discounts on the probable & possible reserves you can get to a value of about $50M for their 3P reserves, and then if you assume that 20K of their 30K acres in the Permian is something other than goat pasture, put $500/acre on those acres and you get to total value of $60M.
Cross-checking for value per flowing barrel, XBOR's production reached 500 boepd a few weeks ago and they have guided to 750 boepd @ year-end, so if you paid $60M, at $100K per flowing barrel you are right around the middle of those figures. In straight oil property sales (i.e. not under a corporate shell), Permian properties are going for about $150K per flowing barrel these days, but XBOR would have to take a haircut because they are not selling the properties directly but rather under a corporate shell.
Note that in addition to having 16.1M shares out they have 3.6M warrants out that can be exercised at $2.25, and essentially no options. 2.1M of the warrants are held by a subsidiary of Red Mountain Resources (RDMP.OB), and can only be exercised in certain events, as follows (excerpt from Sched. 13D filed 1/10/12):
"Black Rock is deemed to be the beneficial owner of 4,272,328 shares of the Issuer’s Common Stock, or approximately 23.4% of the Issuer’s Common Stock. This represents 2,136,164 shares of the Issuer’s Common Stock held by Black Rock and warrants to purchase 2,136,164 shares of the Issuer’s Common Stock held by Black Rock for which the exercise period began on November 26, 2011. The warrants, however, are subject to a cap that precludes the holder from exercising the warrants if after such exercise the holder alone or with its affiliates would be the beneficial owner of more than 19.99% of the Issuer’s Common Stock unless the holders of the Issuer’s Common Stock approve such exercise."
