Biotech Values

[Bio_pete]

THLD - I'll take a stab since I'm overweight the stock.

I normally wouldn't give much weight to the delay in reporting results, but in this instance I'm going to side with a positive drug effect. First line pancreatic cancer has been studied enough recently that investigators have a reliable range for PFS in patients receiving Gemcitabine alone. I think this gives a low probability that the comparator group reports results which are out of the norm, but patient selection can always throw you a curve. Patient selection is randomized in 59 clinical sites within the US, but its an open label study.

The Phase I data for patients receiving the higher dose 340 mg/m2 TH-302 + Gemcitabine was pretty impressive. I'm taking some confidence from the fact that MERCK had a peak at the data & elected to partner before the final results were known. If they can report a better then 50% improvement over Gemcitabine alone then we've got a blockbuster.

Handicap - I'll go 50/50