Hey everybody. Just getting back from a week of vacation. Followed it a little bit while I was away. Good to see some news.
Something to consider.
It appears that we have had a week of 'sell on the news' mentality. As well as 'sell on news that wasn't what was anticipated" mentality.
I don't look at this play as a 'Bowood! Oil Company of the Future'. more like, as many of you know, 'Bowood! Buyout Candidate of the Future'. Why? First of all, its a junior company surrounded by the Majors. And the Majors do not like having a Junior in their backyard. Especially when there is proven that the Junior is sitting on confirmed oil. Bowood has the Armada Well, the Spring Coulee Well, and the Kipp Well. All producing oil.
Here's the catch. Why the pps is so low. Or at least a theory as to why. Facts. You gotta have the technology to get the oil. More oil/less Water, Frac Fluid. Bowood is lacking in the tech department that deals with the recovery of the crude, as confirmed in their latest update. Legacy, not quite a Major, not quite a Junior does not have the best technology either. They are the ones doing the majority of drilling. Eventually they will work it out. Just takes time, as stated in the latest update. Majors, such as Shell, Murphy's, Petrobakken, Cresent Point, etc, have the technology to get the Crude:Water ratio where it needs to be to maximize profits and BPD gains.
Depending on how BWD's and Legacy's relationship goes, whether Legacy itself makes a buyout play for Bowood, which is the most likely, or whether a Major such as Shell, etc, make a play for it, Bowood will not last long on the market which is fantastic for us.
Thats what the general market is missing right now when it comes to Bowood. Traders appear to be misinterpreting the play, missing the equation: Junior Company + Confirmed Oil = Buyout from Major. Not: Junior Company + Confirmed Oil + Junior Company Keeps Land = Junior Competes with Major for Confirmed Oil = Junior Lives Happily Ever After.
Hard to say when to add more. Looks like its bottoming. Very volatile. Could fall more on easy volume or rise on easy volume.
Good luck to all. There hasn't appeared to be institutional selling. If there was the daily average volume would be much higher. Last weeks sell off appears to just be weak hands, misreading the play.
