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Friday, January 20, 2012 7:55:13 AM
Google Finance has Forum Energy listed with a 2.0+ billion market cap.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=LON:FEP
Looking at Forum's website they have the following major shareholder
http://www.forumenergyplc.com/financial/major-shareholders.aspx
Ordinary Issued Shares: 33,364,533
Name of Shareholders with greater than 3% stake
12,953,504 = 38.82% :: Philex Petroleum Corporation:
8,550,200 = 25.63% :: FEC Resources, Inc:
8,646,757 = 25.92% :: Tidemark Holdings Limited (Beneficially owned by Atok-Big Wedge Co., Inc).
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30,150,461 = 90.37%
In order to get the 2.0+ billion in market cap, I simply multiply 33,364,533 issued shares with the current share price GBP61.75 and indeed get GBP2.06 billion.
This is a mega mega huge difference with the stated market cap on the London Stock Exchange, which hovers anywhere between GBP15 and GBP20 million.
I am confused... very confused. I guess I am making a mistake somewhere, otherwise I can only draw three conclusions:
(1) Forum is extremely overvalued. If FEC is priced fairly at USD0.0298 (i.e. USD13.09 million market cap) and assuming all this value is because of the shares it has in Forum. USD13.09 million is roughly GBP8.5 million, so if FEC is priced fairly, Forum should be priced at around GBP1.00 (FEC has about 8.5 million shares in Forum)
(2) Forum is priced fairly, but then FEC is extremely undervalued. The 8,550,200 shares FEC owns translates to GBP500+ million at Forum's current share price. With 439 million shares, we are looking at a share price for FEC of well over USD1.00
(3) A combination of (1) and (2), which implies that any SP for Forum above GBP1.00 means FEC is undervalued.
I must be doing something wrong in my calculations, but I cannot figure out where. Note, I would quite happy with outcome (2) or (3).
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