Thanks for asking DFFHOGS.
Primarily I rely on TA the most. I have used these stocks before - and it helps to get a 'feel' for how they have operated in the past. As you can see by the chart, I am better at my 'sell signals' rather than my 'buy signals.'
This is my basic criteria for determining timing (Medium-Large Cap Stocks Criteria Only) - and I have changed them since March in this order:
1. Chart analysis - Elliot Wave is vital. I begin tracking long before the correction and the correction is my key to get in or stay out on the 1st Wave.
2. News. Even on the big boards, Europe, housing numbers, job numbers, etc. creates the favorable/unfavorable reaction. I never used to keep a dated log of the reports from the feds before, but now I do. I chart the dates of all major news - it helps to interpret large drops on the chart. If it drops on news and then trends back up strongly - it helps me try to determine what to expect.
3. Completing a Downtrend. A slowly fading downtrend is NOT a good sign to me. A sharp one is, especially one either begun or greatly amplified in March (earthquake/tsunami & oil price scare).
4. Sector. With continual reading and research, I try to determine strong sectors for the future. I personally try to stay away from holding companies (slow movers), tech stocks (unless they are undervalued or cutting edge) and many pharma companies and watch most of the others. I think the energy & mining (especially nuclear materials) are going to be extremely strong - so I watch those more carefully.
There are others, but those are the primary ones, for me.
I sell on slight movement. Normally you can tell if there is bad news is out which affects that sector or the entire market - I'll sell. I would rather sell too early rather than too late. When I was newer to swing trading, I waited too long because I wanted the absolute highest price and in doing so the price dropped while I was waiting - so now I sell on a slight move downward if the chart indicates.
With the market in such volatility, buy points have become harder for me lately, but the way I figure, even if I don't get rock bottom, I get in the bottom 10%-15%, so that's OK. If I see bottom confirmed, I catch the bounce on the way up.
With large cap & medium cap companies, I normally watch daily and hourly. My charts are based on daily to examine the entry/exit and then 5 minute charts to figure the exact timing during the day.
GENERAL RULE: Best price to sell is first 15-20 minutes of the day and best price to buy is usually between 1:00-2:30 p.m.
All The Best
Be careful, most people get burned by penny stocks.
