e.Digital Corporation (fka EDIG)

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Mobile multimedia revolution coming soon
By Michael Bartlett
April 04, 2001


The hackneyed phrase, ''the revolution will be televised,'' has been updated by Robert Tercek. Tercek, the president of applications and services at Packet Video, said the new version is, ''the revolution will be televised on your mobile device.''

Tercek is well known in Hollywood for establishing Sony Pictures Entertainment's online programming strategy and interactive TV production unit before moving to his present company. In his keynote addresses on the opening day of the IWireless World conference, Tercek told a gathering of wireless industry executives at the Beverly Hilton hotel that the evolution toward next-generation devices has already begun in Korea and Europe.

''Telecom will continue to grow quickly, despite the recent hiccups,'' he said. ''There has been a lot of talk about the 'next billion users,' and while that is a big number, many studies predict the growth will continue.''

Tercek quoted a recent study by IDC, a company that analyzes technology markets, that predicted 1 billion mobile phones will be in use by 2003, and 70 percent of those will have Internet access. There is plenty of room for growth, as he noted other studies that found 65 percent of the human population has never made a telephone call.

''Because it lacks a wired infrastructure, China soon will pass the United States to become the largest wireless consumer,'' Tercek predicted.

Step one of the evolutionary process Tercek foresees is a change in devices. ''I will make a radical proposition to you - that your next PC will be your mobile phone.'' He quickly added that this idea originally was put forth by technology guru George Gilder - 10 years ago. ''When Gilder first said it, no one could see how it could happen. Now, the advancements in technology have made it close enough to see.''

One reason Tercek believes the cellular phone will be an instrument of revolution is because cost of the handset traditionally has been subsidized by manufacturers or service providers to encourage consumers to pay for subscriber services. The price, he said, has continued to drop $30 per year, which helps fuel further growth.

Mobile phones soon will add TV qualities, Tercek continued. He said no one expects consumers to watch a two-hour movie or a four-hour sporting event on their cell phones, but video capability will add significantly to the value of the handset.

''The next-generation DSP (digital signal processor) in mobile devices will be very powerful,'' he said. ''Not only will these devices be able to play MPEG4 video, they will have many other capabilities, including voice command, which will allow users to talk to the phone, text-to-speech synthesis, where the phone will read your voice mail to you, GPS (global positioning system) navigation and directions, music and other audio, and two-dimensional and three-dimensional graphics.''

Other trends Tercek sees in hardware for mobile communication devices include flexible components, the addition of a camera that will let users take a picture and send it to their friends wirelessly, Bluetooth capability, and organic light emitting diode (OLED) displays that can be viewed in bright sunlight.

Tercek said he sees mobile phones today in the same position PCs were in the early 1990s. Back then, computers were considered tools for professionals to use for spreadsheets and word processing programs. ''Then multimedia PCs made the computer into game centers and a way to connect with the Internet. Phones will follow the same path,'' he said. ''Up until now, they have been seen as the tools of mobile professionals.''

The market with the greatest growth potential, according to Tercek, is with young people in America.

''Outside the U.S., there is a whole generation of kids who are used to doing things like sending short text messages with a wireless phone, not a desktop PC,'' he said.

Tercek said the Internet today is like a sprawling flea market. Trying to find one particular item at teeming bazaar with thousands of blankets spread out in a disorganized fashion is a bewildering experience, he said. ''In the future, business will take over part of the Internet and turn it into a content mall. There will be stores and items neatly packaged to separate people from their money.''

The future of telecom will be in the selling of ''service bundles,'' he said. These bundles will consist of the device, network access, messaging and content.

The company that is the best at the bundled service model is America Online , said Tercek, then comes Japan's NTT DoCoMo I-Mode. He said I-Mode was founded in February 1999 and grew so quickly it had 20 million subscribers by the end of 2000. ''It shows no signs of abating, and soon will pass AOL and become the largest,'' he said.

The key element for I-Mode is that it is geared towards young people and fun, which Tercek said sends a message about the future.

''DoCoMo thought people would use I-Mode mostly for shopping, but instead, they find that 55 percent of people use it for entertainment. DoCoMo has figured out that people want fun and ease of use.''

''In the days ahead, the wireless web principally will be about messaging,'' he added.

IWireless World continues through Wednesday.

More information on IWireless World is available on the Web at http://www.iwirelessworld.com .

Packet Video is online at http://www.pv.com .