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The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (01/11/12)_TY_George


* Wednesday, January 11, 2012


For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Sold SPX on 12/29/11 at 1263.02 for gain of 1.75%; long 1241.30 on 12/20/11.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat



Above is the SPX with its McClellan Oscillator. A bearish divergence shows up when the SPX makes higher highs and its McClellan Oscillator makes lower highs (see chart above). Currently this bearish divergence has developed. We noticed that in the start of an impulse waves the bearish divergence doesn’t stop the advance in the SPX, so we will watch for this potential development. Sold SPX 12/29/11 at 1263.02 for gain of 1.75%; Long SPX on 12/20/11 at 1241.30.




The chart above is the TRIN/SPY ratio dating back to mid 2010. In general the TRIN stays above 1.00 in a downtrend and below 1.00 in an uptrend. The TRIN/SPY ratio helps to visualize that more clearly on a chart and give us divergences. When the TRIN/SPY ratio makes lower highs as the SPY makes lower lows then a bullish divergence is occurring and suggest a low is near, which is what happen at the November low. A bullish picture for the market is when the SPY makes higher highs and the TRIN/SPY ratio is making lower lows and suggest the uptrend in the market may continue which is what happening now. The TRIN/SPY ratio is designed to catch the larger trend and minor wiggles in the market won’t show up in the TRIN/SPY ratio. Therefore a pull back to support near 125 is possible and the TRIN/SPY ratio could remain on a bullish signal. Right now the TRIN/SPY ratio is showing a bullish intermediate term picture and therefore we will look for buy on a pull back. Staying flat for now.




The monthly charts for the XAU/GOLD ratio gave a buy signal on the close of 9/30/11 and remains on a buy signal. The late December low appears to be a Head of a Head and Shoulders bottom. The Right Shoulder is developing now and could take another couple of days to complete and has support near the 52 range. The next rally up should show a “Sign of Strength” (SOS) ( large volume and strong price move) through the Neckline level near 55. This potential Head and Shoulders bottom has upside target near 61 to 63 which is the November and December highs. It possible that the 61 to 63 range may be seen before this month is out.
Long GDX 58.65 on 12/6/11. Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of 8.25. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

George.