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Re: 4fatcat4 post# 36441

Tuesday, 01/10/2012 6:33:27 PM

Tuesday, January 10, 2012 6:33:27 PM

Post# of 279324
What you are missing is short term speculators afraid to be left out over last weekend or for a possible Monday or Tuesday AM PR but who then decided it was too close to the end of the second week without another PR so it was time to get out.

Trying to invest only when it's "safe" is purely a delusion when it comes to biotech. Because of the inherent very high degree of uncertainty, especially about timing, there is no such thing as a "safe" period.

It may have SEEMED safe to jump in shortly before the CC to catch a run up and then back out but the problem is predicting the timing. IMHO a lot of people thought they could do that and then realized they'd missed it and decided to get out at a loss because they'd never had any intention of taking the risk of the CC being a disappointment.

Surprise! If you make an trade highly dependent on timing and get the timing wrong, you lose.

For those who accumulate in stages, the timing gets averaged out: you don't get the best price but you don't get the worst either.

What's bad no matter what way you chose to do it, is being unrealistic about the nature of the risks you are taking.

Timing is far from as easy as it's made out to be, Even if you decided to trade at the optimum time, you may not be ABLE to make that trade successfully! Especially when ALL of the AON bids and asks ARE INVISIBLE ON LEVEL TWO and the visible spread is quite large. Just looking at chart can give a VERY misleading impression of how easy (or not) something could have been done. Many will get very ugly surprises when they actually try to execute what should have been a winning trade. Exactly when a trade would be the most profitable is exactly when it's the most difficult to get executed and that's exactly when the pros have the most advantage. Some traders work hard to try to get a lot of amateurs to join in so they have someone who it's easy to beat.

Trading is like a chain letter: to make money you have to have a lot of other people do the same thing you did AFTER you did it.

It's not a level playing field.
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