Apple Inc (AAPL)

[Tex]

immortality according to projection:

In a recent interview in Derivatives Strategy, Mark Rubinstein justified his portfolio insurance activities, which failed during the stock market crash, by saying, “We simulated 60 years of data and we saw nothing in there.” It’s the equivalent of my saying, “Well, I examined 50 or 60 years of data on Mark Rubinstein’s life and saw that he didn’t die, and therefore I can reject the hypothesis of him being mortal at a high confidence level.”

This is the sort of thing I expect from purely retrospective analysis. Especially when you are looking only at a specific time frame in which there is no way to be assured something aberrant is not occurring in the marketplace, retrospective analysis does not help you see the future.

The probabilities vs. expectancies disconnect is prevalent. Hell, there are people who confuse mean and mode. If you decide to run CCs on all your shares all the time to collect premiums, you have a problem: either your stock is so stable that there's no premium, or, standing on a hill with a javelin LONG ENOUGH, you will see lightning strike. I've made some money on CCs, but the money I've lost out on because I got called in the beginning of a big move is a lot bigger. Due to getting called and having to buy back in, all my shares have a basis in the thirties at the moment. On the other hand, I have a loss carryforward from shares I held when the stock tanked a few years ago, and got called last year when I decided the shares were drifting sideways and inflated on me.

I would like to see some strategies for options that let me enjoy possible upside on a number of shares I can't afford to buy outright, while capping my downside risk (e.g., buying options is out, as they expose one to 100% risk, which is not my idea of a capped downside). Any tips are welcome

Take care,
--Tex.