Biotech Values

[jq1234]

But Nexavar is still used in RCC despite being clearly inferior to Sutent.

Nexavar sales are currently around $1B/yr, although I'm not sure of the split between RCC and HCC and other indications. So a drug that is superior to Nexavar and has a similar S/E profile is likely to be at least a reasonable commercial success.

Nexavar is used almost exclusively in 2nd line RCC after Sutent. Its market share even on 2nd line has declined steadily to below 50%. The revenue growth has come almost exclusively from HCC.

The Tivo trial is geared toward competition against Sutent, 70% of patients in trial were treatment naive. If it were to compete against Nexavar in 2nd line setting, they should have included at least 50% patient population with prior systemic treatment. AVEO didn't breakdown number from that 30% patient population, based on other numbers provided, my guess is the number didn't differ from Nexavar that much. This kind of leaves tivo in no-man's land. Let's say it takes half of Nexavar revenue from RCC, which isn't that much.