Monthly and near term forecast
My computer models show mean trajectory of slightly down, then flattening in January. The model shows when the error of the mean and market reaches +/-5%, action should be taken. Right now the error is neutral and rising, so a little rally could happen before the move lower. Or it could be interpreted as the mean is falling faster than a falling market.
The model has a longer trajectory that is slightly rising and topping around the middle of the year. This should be a choppy advance into a long term top.
For both time trajectories, the market will peak either before or after, but never in sync, with the mean. The amount the market over and undershoots the trajectory seems to symmetrical, which would help determine target price levels.
For now, play to the downside.
