Qualcomm Inc (QCOM)

[khemara_qc]

What's Next? Mindset Change
It's time to get away from the traditional idea of "either/or" – as in 3G or WiMAX – and evolve to a mindset that involves the bundling of wide area, metro area and local area networks. That will give users the most optimal network experience.

By Mark Lowenstein
July 15, 2005
Wireless Week

http://www.wirelessweek.com/article/CA626283.html

The roadmap for wireless networks over the next two to three years is quite clear. By mid-2007, we should have three widely available 3G networks in the United States (Cingular Wireless, Verizon Wireless and Sprint-Nextel). T-Mobile USA, the wildcard among the national operators, either will have been consolidated into the Big Three or acquired by another entity intent on deploying some next-generation network – either along the 3GPP path or some WAN-WLAN combo. CDMA 1X EV-DO or UMTS (HSDPA) is what enterprise decision makers will have available to them over the WAN for the foreseeable future.

But what's next? As we look toward to the latter part of this decade, the discussion becomes a little more interesting. There will always be a thirst for more throughput over wireless networks. Just as the spread of residential broadband is a catalyst for Wi-Fi and 3G cellular, evolving fixed line networks – very-high-data-rate digital subscriber line (VDSL), fiber to the home and so on – will drive demand for higher speeds while tetherless.

While discussion will intensify around 4G, wireless networks for the next decade will require some out-of-the-box thinking. First, the discussion will focus as much on economics as technology. One of the reasons WiMAX has so many proponents is its potential to make substantial improvements at a fraction of the cost of deploying traditional cellular-based systems. The decision for an operator to deploy a high-speed wireless network in certain "zones" of demand, such as a campus or a city, is very different than that required for today's multibillion-dollar 3G networks.

IP multimedia subsystem (IMS) and software-defined radio (SDR) also are important components of this outside-the-box thinking. IMS has the potential to collapse the distinction between wired and wireless networks because they both – at least theoretically – will be speaking the same language. Applications will become easier and cheaper to develop and deploy and will run across multiple networks on multimode devices. Now, we just have to think about applications.

SDR is something we have been talking about for more than 10 years, and significant progress is being made. A Boston-based company called Vanu is testing SDR with a wireless operator in west Texas. The vision here is that a single radio could talk across multiple air interfaces and multiple frequencies. Again, the appeal here is as much about economics as technology. Mesh and peer-to-peer networking will be part of the mix, too, as the "bring your own broadband" concept has an ad-hoc element to it.

The near certainty here is there will be an array of new technologies and approaches in the mix, some of which we haven't even heard of yet. At the same time, scarcity – of spectrum and capacity – will continue to factor into wireless network economics. We have to evolve from today's "either/or" mindset (such as 3G or WiMAX). Successful operators will offer and bundle the three principle flavors of wireless networks: WAN, MAN and LAN. They will deliver the most optimal network experience to a user at a given time, from the standpoint of both context (location, degree of mobility and application) and their own cost. For example, one of the compelling reasons for wireless carriers to offer dual-mode services is that 802.11 may cost them less in some cases than having to provide adequate in-building 3G coverage. Second, carriers should offer the user multiple choices for network connectivity at a given time, at different prices, thereby placing greater power in the hands of the user. For example, a user might pay a premium price for a connection in order to download a movie onto his or her laptop, but might not require that high level of throughput on an ongoing basis.

In short, the framework of the wireless future will represent both an evolution of mindset as much as technology. The objective is to optimize how users move through the multiple "islands" of mobile broadband in a given day, in a way that makes the most economic sense for the operator.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Author Information
Lowenstein is managing director of Mobile Ecosystem. He can be reached at [e-mail], www.m-ecosystem.com.