I wanted to say thank you for all of the info and update on this board to everyone; especially to CJgaddy, KT, FF, WH, RRdog, FTM, Entdoc, and even ole Jazzbeerman.
I have been reading the board for years.
My friend went to the shareholder meeting last year and spoke with ES. He said the company will be sold IF Bavi works. He didn’t ask him the price but gave a price range which equaled around $5B-$15B market cap. In his opinion, he said the board isn’t going out cheap IF Bavi works.
My friend went to this year’s meeting as well. Look for a radiation trial/IST and more IST’s in 2012.
For Jake, he spoke to DP. He asked him about expanding the board with an investment banker and/or ex-BP. He said they have talked about it but right now they feel they have the best management and best support to help management. The way he talked it would be after the data comes in from all 3 of the pending trials.
RRdog/mojo/sunstar – My friend said SK was speaking at the podium and said that Dr Garnick has 17 FDA approval letters framed and hanging in his office. SK said they want to see Dr Garnick with 20 approval letters hanging in his office. My question is, what 3? Cotara, HCV, 1st line NSCLC, 2nd line NSCLC and pancreatic?
My guess is that an early buyout is not in the cards with them wanting 3 approvals and ES wanting a healthy # but who knows if Roche or Pfizer comes with a GLD type offer…?
I agree with Volgoat on HCV trial being good. HCV trial came out of nowhere with Bavi AV at the gov’t testing and no trials. Breast trails had been moving along and had pretty good data. I believe breast had some good PR and CR’s but is a crowded market and not a high unmet medical need. CJ posted a 5 yr cancer survival list and breast was the 3rd highest at 89%. FF or WH posted that Garnick said “I know how to kill a drug.” I think he hasn’t killed it but postponed b/c breast is a single/double and the four Bavi trials they are running, well……Garnick is swinging for the fences imo. I believe they saw a great/better opportunity for Bavi/Ribavirin in place of breast. The timing couldn’t be better on HCV with VRUS and INHX having great appreciation lately. I think they will run more breast trials when cash is more plentiful imo.
If memory serves me but isn’t Merck and Vertex drug’s combo’d with Interferon/Ribavirin for HCV. Wouldn’t they be interested in Bavi AV if the results are as good as interferon for replacement to maintain and/or grow their market? Just thinking if the market is going interferon free…?
I wanted to ask if anyone had a timeline on 2nd line NSCLC AA if the data is great. Mine is we see the data in June and the trial ends Oct ’12.
The company takes 4 months to put the packet info together and submits it to the FDA on Feb ’13. The FDA gives an automatic 6 month delay/answer in Aug ‘13.
My other prognostication; IF Bavi works like we think it does; the company gets bought out 2-4 years after the first approval.
FYI – My friend has no inside info or contacts other than going to the shareholder meeting in October. He also said there weren’t many people at the meeting this year.
Feel free to comment, challenge or disagree.
All in my opinion.
Have a good week and Merry Christmas.
Montana
