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Saturday, December 03, 2011 4:21:23 PM
I don't claim to have anywhere near exact numbers, but by my logic the real numbers would be somewhere between mine and yours.
I was being generous in my estimates because my case is based on small numbers.
We have 67 trades average a day. Most of those trades are the same person moving the stock at will.
Most traders are not in both roles on a single day unless there were very large price moves, but a single trader may buy or sell several times in a day, so let's call it 100 participants on both sides.
Even if there were that "One Person" involved in more than half the trades there would still be more than 70 participants, and I find it hard to believe in that "one Person" even for a single day.
There are more than a dozen Market Makers, most involved each day.
Very few traders trade Every Day. Even Mojo who claims to trade on very small pops and dips says that he trades only about once in each week on the average (please correct me if I am wrong mojo).
So over the course of a weeks trade, more than 500 would have participated, and if there were One market leader it would be a different person each day.
Every stock has a primary share holder.(a trader not Kim) That person is the one that makes the stock move. Everyone else responds to that one persons actions. That person may or may not know they are the "axe".
The idea that there is one supreme leader/holder with many millions of shares is untenable. If they kept trading in one direction every day they would soon run out of shares or own all the liquid shares, and if they changed direction every day or two then they would not be a leader, they would be a follower.
Shareholders of Record 26 a/o Apr 15, 2011
In addition to that we see far too many trades happening for there to be so few shareholders. Most shareholders do not go into or out of a company quickly, they hold for relatively long time frames.
If there were only 26 shareholders, this stock would not see two trades per day.
In summary, while I do not accept your exact numbers, I would easily agree to estimates more toward your direction as this would make my thesis more certain.
Mike L.
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